John, it seems like you’re continuing to make the mistake-according-to-me of analyzing the consequences of a pivotal act without regard for the consequences of the intentions leading up to the act. The act can’t come out of a vacuum, and you can’t built a project compatible with the kind of invasive pivotal acts I’m complaining about without causing a lot of problems leading up to the act, including triggering a lot of fear and panic for other labs and institutions. To summarize from the post title: pivotal act intentions directly have negative consequences fox x-safety, and people thinking about the acts alone seem to be ignoring the consequences of the intentions leading up to the act, which is a fallacy.
I see the argument you’re making there. I still think my point stands: the strategically relevant question is not whether unilateral pivotal act intentions will cause problems, the question is whether aiming for a unilateral pivotal act would or would not reduce the chance of human extinction much more than aiming for a multilateral pivotal act. The OP does not actually attempt to compare the two, it just lists some problems with aiming for a unilateral pivotal act.
I do think that aiming for a unilateral act increases the chance of successfully executing the pivotal act by multiple orders of magnitude, even accounting for the part where other players react to the intention, and that completely swamps the other considerations.
Just as a related idea, in my mind, I often do a kind of thinking that HPMOR!Harry would call “Hufflepuff Bones”, where I look for ways a problem is solvable in physical reality at all, before considering ethical and coordination and even much in the way of practical concerns.
John, it seems like you’re continuing to make the mistake-according-to-me of analyzing the consequences of a pivotal act without regard for the consequences of the intentions leading up to the act. The act can’t come out of a vacuum, and you can’t built a project compatible with the kind of invasive pivotal acts I’m complaining about without causing a lot of problems leading up to the act, including triggering a lot of fear and panic for other labs and institutions. To summarize from the post title: pivotal act intentions directly have negative consequences fox x-safety, and people thinking about the acts alone seem to be ignoring the consequences of the intentions leading up to the act, which is a fallacy.
I see the argument you’re making there. I still think my point stands: the strategically relevant question is not whether unilateral pivotal act intentions will cause problems, the question is whether aiming for a unilateral pivotal act would or would not reduce the chance of human extinction much more than aiming for a multilateral pivotal act. The OP does not actually attempt to compare the two, it just lists some problems with aiming for a unilateral pivotal act.
I do think that aiming for a unilateral act increases the chance of successfully executing the pivotal act by multiple orders of magnitude, even accounting for the part where other players react to the intention, and that completely swamps the other considerations.
Just as a related idea, in my mind, I often do a kind of thinking that HPMOR!Harry would call “Hufflepuff Bones”, where I look for ways a problem is solvable in physical reality at all, before considering ethical and coordination and even much in the way of practical concerns.