As someone new to Predictit, I can’t help but feeling I’m misunderstanding how predictit pays out. Now that I have completed this, and have ~859 shares of each “No”, will I not get payed $1 for each share of “No” which turns out to in fact be “No”? Based on what everyone is saying here, this seems highly unlikely, but I can’t figure out how it works otherwise.
Nevermind, I think I’ve mostly figured it out: by arbitraging, I’m effectively borrowing against my various positions, so once the question is resolved, those debts must be paid before I can get the difference. Another question: what is the more general rule in trying to figure out when this can be done? By my math, 14.88 is about 93% of the 16 options, or 99% of 15 options. This leads me to believe that the more general rule is .99*(n-1) where n is the number of options, which would make sense, since you will not get paid for one of your positions. Is this roughly correct?
As someone new to Predictit, I can’t help but feeling I’m misunderstanding how predictit pays out. Now that I have completed this, and have ~859 shares of each “No”, will I not get payed $1 for each share of “No” which turns out to in fact be “No”? Based on what everyone is saying here, this seems highly unlikely, but I can’t figure out how it works otherwise.
Nevermind, I think I’ve mostly figured it out: by arbitraging, I’m effectively borrowing against my various positions, so once the question is resolved, those debts must be paid before I can get the difference.
Another question: what is the more general rule in trying to figure out when this can be done? By my math, 14.88 is about 93% of the 16 options, or 99% of 15 options. This leads me to believe that the more general rule is .99*(n-1) where n is the number of options, which would make sense, since you will not get paid for one of your positions. Is this roughly correct?