3. is no cause for concern at all. 2. (‘overdue’) presumes some knowledge of mechanism, which I don’t have. Roughly speaking it’s a 1 in 300,000 risk each year and not extinction level. Additionally, we can easily employ radiation poisoning prophylactics if there’s some long-lasting decreased shielding (which I highly doubt—there’s less shielding at the poles, right, but no big deal—it’s not as though the field temporarily disappears completely!)
(‘overdue’) presumes some knowledge of mechanism, which I don’t have. Roughly speaking it’s a 1 in 300,000 risk each year and not extinction level.
Am I misunderstanding, or is this an argument from ignorance? The article says we’re overdue; that makes it sound like someone has an idea of what the mechanism is, and that person is saying that according to their model, we’re overdue. Actually, come to think of it, “overdue” might not imply knowledge of a mechanism at all! Maybe we simply have good reason to believe that this has happened about every 300,000 years for ages, and conclude that “we’re overdue” is a good guess.
it’s not as though the field temporarily disappears completely!
3. is no cause for concern at all. 2. (‘overdue’) presumes some knowledge of mechanism, which I don’t have. Roughly speaking it’s a 1 in 300,000 risk each year and not extinction level. Additionally, we can easily employ radiation poisoning prophylactics if there’s some long-lasting decreased shielding (which I highly doubt—there’s less shielding at the poles, right, but no big deal—it’s not as though the field temporarily disappears completely!)
Am I misunderstanding, or is this an argument from ignorance? The article says we’re overdue; that makes it sound like someone has an idea of what the mechanism is, and that person is saying that according to their model, we’re overdue. Actually, come to think of it, “overdue” might not imply knowledge of a mechanism at all! Maybe we simply have good reason to believe that this has happened about every 300,000 years for ages, and conclude that “we’re overdue” is a good guess.
How do you know?