My litmus test for whether someone even has the basic knowledge that might entitle them to the opinion that anthropogenic climate change isn’t happening is:
“All other things being equal, does adding CO2 to the atmosphere make the world warmer?”
The answer is of course “yes.” Now, if a climate change non-skeptic answers “yes” the follow up question to see if they are entitled to their opinion that anthropogenic climate change is happening: “How could a climate change skeptic answer ‘yes’ to that question?” The correct answer to that is left as an exercise for the reader.
Yes, but the behavior of one component of the system doesn’t necessarily determine the behavior of the system as a whole. It’s the responsibility of those who propose an anthropogenic climate change to prove that it’s happening, not the other way round.
Most of the actual scientific debate seems to be centered around the reliability of the temperature record (and of different proxies) and of climate models (I consider it very likely that the skeptics are right on many of these issues), not around the question whether an anthropogenic climate change of some level is happening at all. At least I’m not aware of any climate scientist making the argument that no anthropogenic warming effect could possibly exist due to X (where X is some [proposed] physical reality, not something of the sort “that would be human hubris”).
The closest thing I could find on that page and the the most promising looking links was the water vapor argument (which is more of an argument that AGW should be smaller than expected rather than non-existent) and he apparently doesn’t subscribe to that anymore. Other than that he seems content to cast doubts and make accusations against the other side. If he has a new X, is there any good summary anywhere?
Just out of interest, what would have been the correct answer to the test (rot13 if you don’t want to spoil it)?
The position of “sane” climate skeptics appears to be that rising CO2 levels’ effects on temperature will be dampened by other regulatory causal effects; the evidence for the existence of such regulatory feedback is the overall stability of climate over long periods of time.
My main concern with that position is that it is whistling in the dark.
That’s just about what I was thinking. Anything that pointed out that the “all other things being equal” clause doesn’t describe reality would be sufficient.
That’s what I meant with argument about climate models, different models suggest different mixes of positive and negative feedback.
Actually I’d be much more worried about CO2 emissions if I was convinced there was a strong dampening effect of unknown origin. That suggests the system might potentially be stressed to the breaking point, and afterwards a runaway process might result in vesusification. Even a very small risk of that would dominate all other climate related risks.
My litmus test for whether someone even has the basic knowledge that might entitle them to the opinion that anthropogenic climate change isn’t happening is: “All other things being equal, does adding CO2 to the atmosphere make the world warmer?”
The answer is of course “yes.” Now, if a climate change non-skeptic answers “yes” the follow up question to see if they are entitled to their opinion that anthropogenic climate change is happening: “How could a climate change skeptic answer ‘yes’ to that question?” The correct answer to that is left as an exercise for the reader.
For example like this:
Yes, but the behavior of one component of the system doesn’t necessarily determine the behavior of the system as a whole. It’s the responsibility of those who propose an anthropogenic climate change to prove that it’s happening, not the other way round.
Most of the actual scientific debate seems to be centered around the reliability of the temperature record (and of different proxies) and of climate models (I consider it very likely that the skeptics are right on many of these issues), not around the question whether an anthropogenic climate change of some level is happening at all. At least I’m not aware of any climate scientist making the argument that no anthropogenic warming effect could possibly exist due to X (where X is some [proposed] physical reality, not something of the sort “that would be human hubris”).
Richard Lindzen is a nut, but he’s also an MIT professor of meteorology who has made arguments from physical reality (mostly) that AGW isn’t real.
The closest thing I could find on that page and the the most promising looking links was the water vapor argument (which is more of an argument that AGW should be smaller than expected rather than non-existent) and he apparently doesn’t subscribe to that anymore. Other than that he seems content to cast doubts and make accusations against the other side. If he has a new X, is there any good summary anywhere?
Just out of interest, what would have been the correct answer to the test (rot13 if you don’t want to spoil it)?
The position of “sane” climate skeptics appears to be that rising CO2 levels’ effects on temperature will be dampened by other regulatory causal effects; the evidence for the existence of such regulatory feedback is the overall stability of climate over long periods of time.
My main concern with that position is that it is whistling in the dark.
That’s just about what I was thinking. Anything that pointed out that the “all other things being equal” clause doesn’t describe reality would be sufficient.
That’s what I meant with argument about climate models, different models suggest different mixes of positive and negative feedback.
Actually I’d be much more worried about CO2 emissions if I was convinced there was a strong dampening effect of unknown origin. That suggests the system might potentially be stressed to the breaking point, and afterwards a runaway process might result in vesusification. Even a very small risk of that would dominate all other climate related risks.