You can tell someone is irrational if they don’t believe global warming is happening.
It’s not like a normal person can observe such changes—we’re talking fraction of a degree over lifetime so far (Wikipedia says 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over entire 20th century).
It’s a matter of your level of trust in “mainstream” scientists, and there’s nothing particularly irrational about not having terribly much trust here.
And even global warming is real, it’s still instrumentally rational to be wrong—let other people limit their carbon emissions, the world in which you drive SUV and everyone else overpays for Priuses is the optimal world for you to live in. (it would be even better to believe correctly in global warming, but be cynical enough to not give a shit about it, but many people have some sort of cynicism limit...)
it would be even better to believe correctly in global warming, but be cynical enough to not give a shit about it, but many people have some sort of cynicism limit...)
You don’t have to be especially cynical, just recognize the situation as the collective action problem that it is. I’m not that cynical but I’m also not a dupe.
Also, not believing in global warming, if global warming is real, is likely to lead you to do stupid things like accepting certain bets on global mean temperature fifty years out and purchasing coastal properties. So I don’t think it is instrumentally rational, either.
Key word there was rationalization. If terminology is the problem, replace “egoism” by “selfishness” and my point remains the same.
I don’t buy rational egoism. What is rational is whatever advances one’s goals—goals which may or may not be selfish. Considering our inbuilt empathy & love for our families, the general case is that our goals will not be purely selfish.
Even if I was a rational egoist, though, actually believing something against evidence (as distinct from declaring belief or not caring) is utterly irrational.
It is irrational in a way that it recognized limitations of human rationality, and decides that sometimes you’re better off not knowing. Perfect rational being would not need it—human being sometimes might.
“Oh all right,” said the old man. “Here’s a prayer for you. Got a pencil?”
“Yes,” said Arthur.
“It goes like this. Let’s see now: ‘Protect me from knowing what I don’t need to know. Protect me from even knowing that there are things to know that I don’t know. Protect me from knowing that I decided not to know about the things that I decide not to know about. Amen.’ That’s it. It’s what you pray silently inside yourself anyway, so you may as well have it out in the open.”
“Hmmm,” said Arthur. “Well thank you—”
“There’s another prayer that goes with it that’s very important,” said the old man, “so you’d better jot this down, too.”
“Okay.”
“It goes, ‘Lord, lord, lord...’ It’s best to put that bit in just in case. You can never be too sure. ‘Lord, lord, lord. Protect me from the consequences of the above prayer. Amen.’ And that’s it. Most of the trouble people get into in life comes from leaving out that last part.”
In all seriousness, ignorance may sometimes be bliss, but conscious, willful ignorance is reprehensible. Let’s actually make an effort to be all right with the way the world is, before we throw up our hands.
I choose to be ignorant about certain things all the time—every moment of my life spent on anything except reading Wikipedia is a choice of selective ignorance.
How much does your life improve by having more accurate view of global warming research, as opposed to being vaguely aware of it but fairly skeptical either way like most educated people? I’d guess improvement will be tiny, and the risk of such knowledge triggering your world-saving instincts is not worth it.
I choose to be ignorant about certain things all the time—every moment of my life spent on anything except reading Wikipedia is a choice of selective ignorance.
True, but that is ignorance-of-omission. You seemed to be advocating a conscious decision to keep yourself ignorant of certain well-defined areas of knowledge. Apologies if this is not so.
How much does your life improve by having more accurate view of global warming research...?
Well, here’s the hedonistic vs. goal-oriented view of rationality again. Not everything I do is directly related to satisfying immediate whims. I am a voter and also an engineer, as it happens. Both of these circumstances imply I have an ethical obligation to be at least somewhat conversant on questions of public policy & the environment.
I’d guess improvement will be tiny, and the risk of such knowledge triggering your world-saving instincts is not worth it.
If my “world-saving instincts” should be triggered, I want them triggered. Again, as a bare minimum, public policy depends on an informed public, and GW is a policy problem. But uninformed consent in a democracy is pointless, it doesn’t count. We might just as well save money on ballot paper and install a grand Doge for all the functional difference it would entail.
It’s not like a normal person can observe such changes—we’re talking fraction of a degree over lifetime so far (Wikipedia says 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over entire 20th century).
That’s not necessarily true—first, the temperature change is not uniform everywhere, and second, the effects of such changes on weather may be noticeable in ways other than simple warming (e.g. more extreme weather events). Certainly day-to-day observations cannot support the kind of confidence that many scientists have in their conclusions about global warming, but they can lend slight credence to such statements.
But it’s non-uniform enough that some people are observing warming and some are observing cooling. So it seems clear from a perspective that accepts the terms of the claim that all purely local observations are uninformative.
second, the effects of such changes on weather may be noticeable in ways other than simple warming (e.g. more extreme weather events).
Tracking extreme weather events from a local perspective seems likely to give even less reliable results than looking for trends in your local climate.
If you accept the terms of the debate, you have to hope for non-biased global observations that are properly normed against a long baseline in order to make any decisions about what weather evidence counts for or against the positions. At this point, I’m having a hard time finding any non-biased observations.
Fair enough—I was quibbling, to a large part because:
The weather in my home region has gotten weird compared to my childhood—many mild winters and summer droughts, for example.
An Alaskan on DeviantArt a while ago wrote a prose piece about how she was always freezing, never warming enough in the summer to withstand the following winter … and prefaced it with a matter-of-fact note about how that wasn’t the case in recent years.
Hence, when you commented that “[i]t’s not like a normal person, can observe such changes”, that seemed to contradict my own experiences. But given the prior attitude effect, my experiences should probably be discounted a fair bit.
It’s not like a normal person can observe such changes—we’re talking fraction of a degree over lifetime so far (Wikipedia says 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over entire 20th century).
It’s a matter of your level of trust in “mainstream” scientists, and there’s nothing particularly irrational about not having terribly much trust here.
And even global warming is real, it’s still instrumentally rational to be wrong—let other people limit their carbon emissions, the world in which you drive SUV and everyone else overpays for Priuses is the optimal world for you to live in. (it would be even better to believe correctly in global warming, but be cynical enough to not give a shit about it, but many people have some sort of cynicism limit...)
You don’t have to be especially cynical, just recognize the situation as the collective action problem that it is. I’m not that cynical but I’m also not a dupe.
Also, not believing in global warming, if global warming is real, is likely to lead you to do stupid things like accepting certain bets on global mean temperature fifty years out and purchasing coastal properties. So I don’t think it is instrumentally rational, either.
I’d describe that as a rationalization of egoism, wouldn’t you?
What do you mean by egoism?
Key word there was rationalization. If terminology is the problem, replace “egoism” by “selfishness” and my point remains the same.
I don’t buy rational egoism. What is rational is whatever advances one’s goals—goals which may or may not be selfish. Considering our inbuilt empathy & love for our families, the general case is that our goals will not be purely selfish.
Even if I was a rational egoist, though, actually believing something against evidence (as distinct from declaring belief or not caring) is utterly irrational.
I think we can agree that “instrumentally rational” is irrational.
It is irrational in a way that it recognized limitations of human rationality, and decides that sometimes you’re better off not knowing. Perfect rational being would not need it—human being sometimes might.
“Oh all right,” said the old man. “Here’s a prayer for you. Got a pencil?”
“Yes,” said Arthur.
“It goes like this. Let’s see now: ‘Protect me from knowing what I don’t need to know. Protect me from even knowing that there are things to know that I don’t know. Protect me from knowing that I decided not to know about the things that I decide not to know about. Amen.’ That’s it. It’s what you pray silently inside yourself anyway, so you may as well have it out in the open.”
“Hmmm,” said Arthur. “Well thank you—”
“There’s another prayer that goes with it that’s very important,” said the old man, “so you’d better jot this down, too.”
“Okay.”
“It goes, ‘Lord, lord, lord...’ It’s best to put that bit in just in case. You can never be too sure. ‘Lord, lord, lord. Protect me from the consequences of the above prayer. Amen.’ And that’s it. Most of the trouble people get into in life comes from leaving out that last part.”
In all seriousness, ignorance may sometimes be bliss, but conscious, willful ignorance is reprehensible. Let’s actually make an effort to be all right with the way the world is, before we throw up our hands.
I choose to be ignorant about certain things all the time—every moment of my life spent on anything except reading Wikipedia is a choice of selective ignorance.
How much does your life improve by having more accurate view of global warming research, as opposed to being vaguely aware of it but fairly skeptical either way like most educated people? I’d guess improvement will be tiny, and the risk of such knowledge triggering your world-saving instincts is not worth it.
True, but that is ignorance-of-omission. You seemed to be advocating a conscious decision to keep yourself ignorant of certain well-defined areas of knowledge. Apologies if this is not so.
Well, here’s the hedonistic vs. goal-oriented view of rationality again. Not everything I do is directly related to satisfying immediate whims. I am a voter and also an engineer, as it happens. Both of these circumstances imply I have an ethical obligation to be at least somewhat conversant on questions of public policy & the environment.
If my “world-saving instincts” should be triggered, I want them triggered. Again, as a bare minimum, public policy depends on an informed public, and GW is a policy problem. But uninformed consent in a democracy is pointless, it doesn’t count. We might just as well save money on ballot paper and install a grand Doge for all the functional difference it would entail.
If democracy depended on informed voters, then we could as well give it up and set up a single party government.
Fortunately it does not.
I didn’t say it was bad. I said it was irrational.
That’s not necessarily true—first, the temperature change is not uniform everywhere, and second, the effects of such changes on weather may be noticeable in ways other than simple warming (e.g. more extreme weather events). Certainly day-to-day observations cannot support the kind of confidence that many scientists have in their conclusions about global warming, but they can lend slight credence to such statements.
But it’s non-uniform enough that some people are observing warming and some are observing cooling. So it seems clear from a perspective that accepts the terms of the claim that all purely local observations are uninformative.
Tracking extreme weather events from a local perspective seems likely to give even less reliable results than looking for trends in your local climate.
If you accept the terms of the debate, you have to hope for non-biased global observations that are properly normed against a long baseline in order to make any decisions about what weather evidence counts for or against the positions. At this point, I’m having a hard time finding any non-biased observations.
Fair enough—I was quibbling, to a large part because:
The weather in my home region has gotten weird compared to my childhood—many mild winters and summer droughts, for example.
An Alaskan on DeviantArt a while ago wrote a prose piece about how she was always freezing, never warming enough in the summer to withstand the following winter … and prefaced it with a matter-of-fact note about how that wasn’t the case in recent years.
Hence, when you commented that “[i]t’s not like a normal person, can observe such changes”, that seemed to contradict my own experiences. But given the prior attitude effect, my experiences should probably be discounted a fair bit.