If half of my friends are getting covid right now, there seems to be massive value in waiting another three months before reassessing precautions, so I can see how it goes for them. While noisy, I expect to get a better sense of the distribution of outcomes among people in my reference class—and especially whether there is a macroscopic chance of really dire outcomes—from this (I think regrettable) experiment than I get from cobbling together different studies about vaguely defined symptoms among ambiguous or not-quite-relevant demographics, with various guesstimated adjustments.
I recommend registering in advance how you will evaluate the new information you get over the next several months. In particular, it would be valuable to write down your credence on various outcomes, conditional on covid being something that is worth paying a substantial cost to avoid.
My guess is that you and I will disagree on what we’re likely to see in low vs high risk worlds. For example, I think that A and B in your analysis are almost guaranteed, whether long covid risk is large or small. Also, C, F, G, H, and L are entirely consistent with low risk, and only modestly more likely in worlds where long covid is a major concern.
I recommend registering in advance how you will evaluate the new information you get over the next several months. In particular, it would be valuable to write down your credence on various outcomes, conditional on covid being something that is worth paying a substantial cost to avoid.
My guess is that you and I will disagree on what we’re likely to see in low vs high risk worlds. For example, I think that A and B in your analysis are almost guaranteed, whether long covid risk is large or small. Also, C, F, G, H, and L are entirely consistent with low risk, and only modestly more likely in worlds where long covid is a major concern.