My takeoff speeds are on the somewhat faster end, probably ~a year or two from “we basically don’t have crazy systems” to “AI (or whoever controls AI) controls the world”
EDIT: After further reflection, I no longer endorse this. I would now put 90% CI from 6 months to 15 years with median around 3.5 years. I still think fast takeoff is plausible but now think pretty slow is also plausible and overall more likely.
Got it. To avoid derailing with this object level question, I’ll just say that I think it seems helpful to be explicit about takeoff speeds in macrostrategy discussions. Ideally, specifying how different strategies work over distributions of takeoff speeds.
My takeoff speeds are on the somewhat faster end, probably ~a year or two from “we basically don’t have crazy systems” to “AI (or whoever controls AI) controls the world”
EDIT: After further reflection, I no longer endorse this. I would now put 90% CI from 6 months to 15 years with median around 3.5 years. I still think fast takeoff is plausible but now think pretty slow is also plausible and overall more likely.
Got it. To avoid derailing with this object level question, I’ll just say that I think it seems helpful to be explicit about takeoff speeds in macrostrategy discussions. Ideally, specifying how different strategies work over distributions of takeoff speeds.