FWIW, from a histogram I quickly made from the data in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people it doesn’t look like the probability of surviving to age x falls any faster than exponentially.
FWIW, from a histogram I quickly made from the data in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people it doesn’t look like the probability of surviving to age x falls any faster than exponentially.