I don’t think that really helps. If you’re treating someones beliefs as an outlier, then you’re not respecting that person as a rationalist.
Even if you did take the median of your metaprobability distribution (which is not the odds you want to bet on, though you may want to profess them for some reason), eventually you should change your mind (most bothersome disagreements involve people confidently on opposite sides of the spectrum so the direction in which to update is obvious).
It could be that in practice most people update beliefs according to some more “robust” method, but to the extent that it freezes their beliefs under new real evidence, its a sucky way of doing it and you don’t get a ‘get out of jail free’ card for doing it.
I don’t think that really helps. If you’re treating someones beliefs as an outlier, then you’re not respecting that person as a rationalist.
Even if you did take the median of your metaprobability distribution (which is not the odds you want to bet on, though you may want to profess them for some reason), eventually you should change your mind (most bothersome disagreements involve people confidently on opposite sides of the spectrum so the direction in which to update is obvious).
It could be that in practice most people update beliefs according to some more “robust” method, but to the extent that it freezes their beliefs under new real evidence, its a sucky way of doing it and you don’t get a ‘get out of jail free’ card for doing it.