Labeling these as 1-5 from top to bottom, 2 contributes to 1 (you may be double-penalizing if you’re counting them distinctly), and 4 (time cost to investigate) doesn’t seem like a valid reason to discount a hypothesis.
I don’t know whether I disagree with your conclusion—I haven’t bothered to read arguments about the topic and probably will continue to not do so because the expected value of such data is of pretty low for me—I just wanted to point out possible errors in your process.
2 contributes to 1, yes, but conspiracy hypotheses are flawed for reasons other than their complexity.
I agree with you on 4: it isn’t a reason to discount the hypothesis, but it is a reason to avoid seeking further information on the topic (high opportunity cost).
On reflection, I now regret engaging on this topic. My apologies for time wasted.
On reflection, I now regret engaging on this topic. My apologies for time wasted.
Please don’t. Your comment was an example that it is possible to reply politely and rationally even in a discussion on topic that you (presumably) consider irrational. That is a nice skill to have.
Labeling these as 1-5 from top to bottom, 2 contributes to 1 (you may be double-penalizing if you’re counting them distinctly), and 4 (time cost to investigate) doesn’t seem like a valid reason to discount a hypothesis.
I don’t know whether I disagree with your conclusion—I haven’t bothered to read arguments about the topic and probably will continue to not do so because the expected value of such data is of pretty low for me—I just wanted to point out possible errors in your process.
2 contributes to 1, yes, but conspiracy hypotheses are flawed for reasons other than their complexity.
I agree with you on 4: it isn’t a reason to discount the hypothesis, but it is a reason to avoid seeking further information on the topic (high opportunity cost).
On reflection, I now regret engaging on this topic. My apologies for time wasted.
Please don’t. Your comment was an example that it is possible to reply politely and rationally even in a discussion on topic that you (presumably) consider irrational. That is a nice skill to have.