You extrapolated two times from a single example. That’s generally bad when dealing with risky situation. Just because no catastrophe happened in one example from which you are extrapolating doesn’t mean that there’s no problem.
Part of the reference class for Covid was SARS. It’s very unclear why the Flu which is a far more distant virus should be a better comparison then SARS. SARS causing long-term CFS was very worrying at the beginning of the pandemic. Fortunately, long COVID isn’t as common and strong as CFS was for SARS but it was clear that long-term effects were something to worry about from the beginning.
The fact that pandemics were a big risk was a belief that a lot of people in our community held before COVID-19, to the extend that it was seen as a bigger GCR then unfriendly AI by many people in our census. Treating swine flu as evidence that pandemics aren’t a huge problem seems to me generally bad reasoning about tail risk.
You extrapolated two times from a single example. That’s generally bad when dealing with risky situation. Just because no catastrophe happened in one example from which you are extrapolating doesn’t mean that there’s no problem.
Part of the reference class for Covid was SARS. It’s very unclear why the Flu which is a far more distant virus should be a better comparison then SARS. SARS causing long-term CFS was very worrying at the beginning of the pandemic. Fortunately, long COVID isn’t as common and strong as CFS was for SARS but it was clear that long-term effects were something to worry about from the beginning.
The fact that pandemics were a big risk was a belief that a lot of people in our community held before COVID-19, to the extend that it was seen as a bigger GCR then unfriendly AI by many people in our census. Treating swine flu as evidence that pandemics aren’t a huge problem seems to me generally bad reasoning about tail risk.