I’d chunk part of this as: most people (including me, often) don’t habitually condition on their own thoughts/beliefs/actions and then query their own expectations for the most obvious results of those and are often surprised when the most obvious results are something they don’t want. This reliably fails to induce the meta update that
This information is (apparently counterintuitively) available
I should engage with this information more often
Given 2, making upstream changes that make 2 more likely is higher impact than lots of object level changes and should be prioritized as such.
Given the past failure of 1, 2, 3 (the meta update) I should try to figure out what’s going on and get even more upstream of useful patterns. This would be worth at least tens of hours of investigation on expectation.
For myself, the thing that finally clicked in this area was, for whatever reason (and I don’t know if it will work for anyone else) noticing mental operations that can apply to themselves. The specific operation that happened was applying ooda loops to the concept of ooda loops.
I’d also broadly say of the meta update: I think human intuitions aren’t fine tuned for happening to be in a +2-3sd brain loadout, so they aren’t very good at cueing us to actually use those features reliably.
I’d also broadly say of the meta update: I think human intuitions aren’t fine tuned for happening to be in a +2-3sd brain loadout, so they aren’t very good at cueing us to actually use those features reliably.
That’s an interesting point I hadn’t thought about before.
I’d chunk part of this as: most people (including me, often) don’t habitually condition on their own thoughts/beliefs/actions and then query their own expectations for the most obvious results of those and are often surprised when the most obvious results are something they don’t want. This reliably fails to induce the meta update that
This information is (apparently counterintuitively) available
I should engage with this information more often
Given 2, making upstream changes that make 2 more likely is higher impact than lots of object level changes and should be prioritized as such.
Given the past failure of 1, 2, 3 (the meta update) I should try to figure out what’s going on and get even more upstream of useful patterns. This would be worth at least tens of hours of investigation on expectation.
For myself, the thing that finally clicked in this area was, for whatever reason (and I don’t know if it will work for anyone else) noticing mental operations that can apply to themselves. The specific operation that happened was applying ooda loops to the concept of ooda loops.
I’d also broadly say of the meta update: I think human intuitions aren’t fine tuned for happening to be in a +2-3sd brain loadout, so they aren’t very good at cueing us to actually use those features reliably.
That’s an interesting point I hadn’t thought about before.
I love this!