I think that LW rationality has given me a slightly better understanding of the limitations of experts, so compared to the average smart person, I know that I probably shouldn’t rely too much on the new thinking on the topic, either.
Great. But what should I do instead? LW rationality doesn’t really tell me, so in practice—if I go with the “screw it, I’ll just do something” mentality, I just fall back into going with the best expert predictions anyway.
It seems like LW rationality would straightforwardly tell you that this means you ought to keep your eggs in multiple different baskets rather than investing everything in the single top expert opinion. (Assuming you’re risk-averse, which it sounds like you are.)
It seems like LW rationality would straightforwardly tell you that this means you ought to keep your eggs in multiple different baskets rather than investing everything in the single top expert opinion. (Assuming you’re risk-averse, which it sounds like you are.)