At least in the case of male->female rape, it’s easy to accuse someone of rape once they’ve had sex with you, it’s a very serious charge, and courts tend to side with the alleged victim.
Compared to other crimes, rape is extremely difficult to prove in court.
Quick sanity check: According to RAINN (disclosure: citing an organization I’ve supported), 58% chance of a conviction for rape. A questionable Wikipedia article claims that the conviction rate for crimes in general is “84% in Texas, 82% in California, 72% in New York, 67% in North Carolina, and 59% in Florida.” (as of 2000). Thus, it seems plausible that rape is extremely difficult to prove in court.
For clarity, the RAINN stats are rape-specific and the Wikipedia stats are for all crimes, right?
Crime-specific conviction rates seem to be hard to find. A 1997 DoJ press release claims 87% conviction rates for all crimes in federal court (a skewed sample, though) and 86% for violent crime, but doesn’t break it down further. The situation could plausibly have changed in the last fourteen years due to changes in culture or forensic science.
Statistics from the California DoJ (pages 49-50; PDF file) suggest that around 67% of felony arrests (not trials) in the state result in conviction, and that that rate has slowly been increasing since the Seventies (when the number was around 45%).
I tried looking up statistics, but it seems like my Google-Fu has failed. I found numbers for federal court, but most of what it says is that the vast majority of federal indictments are resolved with guilty pleas, and there don’t seem to be very many rape trials in federal court.
Trying to break down the numbers further:
According to the numbers given, In 2005 there were 3065 jury convictions and 430 jury acquittals in federal court, making a total of 3,495 federal jury trials and a conviction rate of 88%. Under the “sexual abuse” category, there were 24 jury trials that ended in a conviction and 8 that ended in an acquittal. The sample size is small, but it gives a conviction rate of 75%.
Which tells me… basically nothing, because the sample size is very small, most rape cases would be prosecuted in state courts rather than federal courts, and cases that actually go to trial are unusual anyway because both the prosecution and the defense have to prefer a trial to the alternatives of not taking the case to court at all or pleading guilty.
Compared to other crimes, rape is extremely difficult to prove in court.
Quick sanity check: According to RAINN (disclosure: citing an organization I’ve supported), 58% chance of a conviction for rape. A questionable Wikipedia article claims that the conviction rate for crimes in general is “84% in Texas, 82% in California, 72% in New York, 67% in North Carolina, and 59% in Florida.” (as of 2000). Thus, it seems plausible that rape is extremely difficult to prove in court.
For clarity, the RAINN stats are rape-specific and the Wikipedia stats are for all crimes, right?
Crime-specific conviction rates seem to be hard to find. A 1997 DoJ press release claims 87% conviction rates for all crimes in federal court (a skewed sample, though) and 86% for violent crime, but doesn’t break it down further. The situation could plausibly have changed in the last fourteen years due to changes in culture or forensic science.
Statistics from the California DoJ (pages 49-50; PDF file) suggest that around 67% of felony arrests (not trials) in the state result in conviction, and that that rate has slowly been increasing since the Seventies (when the number was around 45%).
Yes. Editing.
I was waiting for someone to cry foul on empirical grounds. I was arguing from popular perception. Do you have a source?
Good question.
I tried looking up statistics, but it seems like my Google-Fu has failed. I found numbers for federal court, but most of what it says is that the vast majority of federal indictments are resolved with guilty pleas, and there don’t seem to be very many rape trials in federal court.
Trying to break down the numbers further:
According to the numbers given, In 2005 there were 3065 jury convictions and 430 jury acquittals in federal court, making a total of 3,495 federal jury trials and a conviction rate of 88%. Under the “sexual abuse” category, there were 24 jury trials that ended in a conviction and 8 that ended in an acquittal. The sample size is small, but it gives a conviction rate of 75%.
Which tells me… basically nothing, because the sample size is very small, most rape cases would be prosecuted in state courts rather than federal courts, and cases that actually go to trial are unusual anyway because both the prosecution and the defense have to prefer a trial to the alternatives of not taking the case to court at all or pleading guilty.
Sigh...