Yeah, I don’t think that combo of hypotheses is totally unfalsifiable (eg, normative ethicists doing so well is IMO a strike against my hypotheses), but it’s definitely flexible enough that it has to get a lot less credit for correct predictions. It’s harder to falsify, so it doesn’t win many points when it’s verified.
Fortunately, both parts of the hypothesis can be tested in some ways separately. E.g., maybe I’m wrong about ‘most non-philosophers one-box’ and the Guardian poll was a fluke; I haven’t double-checked yet, and don’t feel that confident in a single Guardian survey.
Yeah, I don’t think that combo of hypotheses is totally unfalsifiable (eg, normative ethicists doing so well is IMO a strike against my hypotheses), but it’s definitely flexible enough that it has to get a lot less credit for correct predictions. It’s harder to falsify, so it doesn’t win many points when it’s verified.
Fortunately, both parts of the hypothesis can be tested in some ways separately. E.g., maybe I’m wrong about ‘most non-philosophers one-box’ and the Guardian poll was a fluke; I haven’t double-checked yet, and don’t feel that confident in a single Guardian survey.