You mean like the fact that clouds are white and form more when it’s warmer.
Do they, really? Last time I checked they formed pretty well at −20c and at +35c . Ohh, i see knee jerk reaction happening—they may form a bit more at +35c in your place (here they are white, and also form more in winter). Okay, 55 degrees of difference may make a difference, now what?
There comes another common failure mode: animism. Even if you find temperature dependent effects that are opposite, they have to be quite strong to produce any notable difference of temperature as a result of 2 degree difference in temperature, at the many points of the temperature range, to get yourself any compensation beyond small %. It’s only the biological systems, that tend to implement PID controllers, which do counter any deviations from equilibrium, even little ones, in a way not dependent on their magnitude.
The way I’ve always heard it, mainstream estimates of climate sensitivity are somewhere around 3 degrees (with a fair amount of spread), and the direct effect of CO2 on radiation is responsible for 1 degree of that, with the rest being caused by positive feedbacks. It may be possible to argue that some important positive feedbacks are also basic physics (and that no important negative feedbacks are basic physics), but it sounds to me like that’s not what you’re doing; it sounds to me like, instead, you’re mistakenly claiming that the direct effect by itself, without any feedback effects, is enough to cause warming similar to that claimed by mainstream estimates.
Nah, I’m speaking of the anthropogenic global warming vs no anthropogenic global warming ‘debate’, not of 1 degree vs 3 degrees type debate. For the most part, the AGW debate is focussed on the effect of CO2, sans the positive feedbacks, as the deniers won’t even accept 1 degree of difference.
Speaking of which, one very huge positive feedback is that water vapour is a greenhouse ‘gas’.
Why the quotes? Water vapor’s a gas. There’s also liquid- and solid-phase water in the atmosphere in the form of clouds and haze, but my understanding is that that generally has a cooling effect by way of increasing albedo.
Might be missing some feedbacks there, though; I’m not a climatologist.
Well, thats why quotes, because it is changing phase there. The clouds effect on climate btw is not so simple; the clouds also reflect the infrared some.
You mean like the fact that clouds are white and form more when it’s warmer.
Do they, really? Last time I checked they formed pretty well at −20c and at +35c . Ohh, i see knee jerk reaction happening—they may form a bit more at +35c in your place (here they are white, and also form more in winter). Okay, 55 degrees of difference may make a difference, now what?
There comes another common failure mode: animism. Even if you find temperature dependent effects that are opposite, they have to be quite strong to produce any notable difference of temperature as a result of 2 degree difference in temperature, at the many points of the temperature range, to get yourself any compensation beyond small %. It’s only the biological systems, that tend to implement PID controllers, which do counter any deviations from equilibrium, even little ones, in a way not dependent on their magnitude.
The way I’ve always heard it, mainstream estimates of climate sensitivity are somewhere around 3 degrees (with a fair amount of spread), and the direct effect of CO2 on radiation is responsible for 1 degree of that, with the rest being caused by positive feedbacks. It may be possible to argue that some important positive feedbacks are also basic physics (and that no important negative feedbacks are basic physics), but it sounds to me like that’s not what you’re doing; it sounds to me like, instead, you’re mistakenly claiming that the direct effect by itself, without any feedback effects, is enough to cause warming similar to that claimed by mainstream estimates.
Nah, I’m speaking of the anthropogenic global warming vs no anthropogenic global warming ‘debate’, not of 1 degree vs 3 degrees type debate. For the most part, the AGW debate is focussed on the effect of CO2, sans the positive feedbacks, as the deniers won’t even accept 1 degree of difference.
Speaking of which, one very huge positive feedback is that water vapour is a greenhouse ‘gas’.
Why the quotes? Water vapor’s a gas. There’s also liquid- and solid-phase water in the atmosphere in the form of clouds and haze, but my understanding is that that generally has a cooling effect by way of increasing albedo.
Might be missing some feedbacks there, though; I’m not a climatologist.
Well, thats why quotes, because it is changing phase there. The clouds effect on climate btw is not so simple; the clouds also reflect the infrared some.
I think the debate, and certainly the policy debate, is (in effect) about the catastrophic consequences of CO2.