On the other hand, talking to a friend in the Bay area rationality scene, it sounds like maybe even with the gender imbalance there are more women looking to settle down than men? In which case the gender imbalance is actually likely making marriage more common?
The gender imbalance would only matter if EAs are reluctant to marry outside the group—is that the speculation here?
First, mostly; it is the speculation. Second, in the Bay Area, there’s also a gender imbalance outside of EA.
On the other hand, talking to a friend in the Bay area rationality scene, it sounds like maybe even with the gender imbalance there are more women looking to settle down than men? In which case the gender imbalance is actually likely making marriage more common?
Good to know, I wasn’t aware.
Maybe there’s some small benefit there, but I’d still be surprised if the gender imbalance on net increased the percentage of marriages.