I’m honestly surprised by someone on LessWrong engaging in that kind of Black White thinking. If you are uncertain about whether or not a given vaccine gets approved, there’s a probability of it getting approved and you can calculate expected utility given the cost you pay for the vaccines that might or might not be approved.
Is the idea of thinking in terms of probability new to you, or is there some way that using it in a political context is hard?
The question was “why didn’t we ramp up sooner?”. I answered the question as best I knew how. Everyone is acting like I’m the one that decided to not use option pricing.
And yes, government paying for things that might not work is hard. Besides generic mind killing, there are people that don’t want the government to spend money and the people who don’t believe in vaccines at all. They all vote.
I’m honestly surprised by someone on LessWrong engaging in that kind of Black White thinking. If you are uncertain about whether or not a given vaccine gets approved, there’s a probability of it getting approved and you can calculate expected utility given the cost you pay for the vaccines that might or might not be approved.
Is the idea of thinking in terms of probability new to you, or is there some way that using it in a political context is hard?
The question was “why didn’t we ramp up sooner?”. I answered the question as best I knew how. Everyone is acting like I’m the one that decided to not use option pricing.
And yes, government paying for things that might not work is hard. Besides generic mind killing, there are people that don’t want the government to spend money and the people who don’t believe in vaccines at all. They all vote.