Option value. They’re not paying for a vaccine that can’t be used, they’re paying for a vaccine that MIGHT be usable in the near- or medium-term future. Paying for many options before approval so you’re ready with volume for the one(s) that get approved is +EV in most scenarios.
Option value. They’re not paying for a vaccine that can’t be used, they’re paying for a vaccine that MIGHT be usable in the near- or medium-term future. Paying for many options before approval so you’re ready with volume for the one(s) that get approved is +EV in most scenarios.
Which is why we proposed exactly that, at the end of April: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uXb4gcDP2fgBPcMHJ/market-shaping-approaches-to-accelerate-covid-19-response-a
Now published: https://f1000research.com/articles/9-1154
Unfortunately, we couldn’t get policymakers on board.