It’s not just that brains are too hot, it’s that evolution probably can’t implement quantum computers at all for the last billion or so years because I suspect there’s not a path to locally getting quantum computers through genetics.
I’d take a bet at 1000-1 odds that no meaningful quantum computations are happening in our brains.
Those are big odds. I would want to take that bet, even if I only thought there was a small probability of there being “meaningful quantum computations” in the brain.
But how and when would the bet be decided? I mean, if it becomes unambiguously clear that there’s a cognitively relevant quantum computation in the brain, then the bet is decided in favor of quantum mind theories. But otherwise, you’re trying to prove an absence… would you have to wait until the brain is fully understood, and if all computations in the final brain model are classical, then you win the bet?
I’m also concerned about your ability to pay, at those odds. You could easily be on the hook for millions of dollars if quantum computing was found within the brain after all.
What size stake would you be willing to commit to?
If there’s one lesson I learned, it’s to be less confident in my beliefs. I was both probably wrong, and dangerous to have such high confidence levels.
I got randomly distracted from this conversation, but returning I find: 1) Mitchell said things I would want to say, but probably more succinctly <3 2) Noosphere updated somehow (though to what, and based on what info, I’m unsure) <3
Admittedly, I updated to more of a 5-10:1 bets. A lot of this was the downside risk of betting such huge odds, but I also should have been quite a bit less confident in my own ideas.
It’s not just that brains are too hot, it’s that evolution probably can’t implement quantum computers at all for the last billion or so years because I suspect there’s not a path to locally getting quantum computers through genetics.
I’d take a bet at 1000-1 odds that no meaningful quantum computations are happening in our brains.
Those are big odds. I would want to take that bet, even if I only thought there was a small probability of there being “meaningful quantum computations” in the brain.
But how and when would the bet be decided? I mean, if it becomes unambiguously clear that there’s a cognitively relevant quantum computation in the brain, then the bet is decided in favor of quantum mind theories. But otherwise, you’re trying to prove an absence… would you have to wait until the brain is fully understood, and if all computations in the final brain model are classical, then you win the bet?
Yes, though I’d probably accept a position where no brain region (not wiring) uses quantum computations. Still, this would be a hard bet to do well.
I’m also concerned about your ability to pay, at those odds. You could easily be on the hook for millions of dollars if quantum computing was found within the brain after all.
What size stake would you be willing to commit to?
$30, as a starting point for my stakes.
If there’s one lesson I learned, it’s to be less confident in my beliefs. I was both probably wrong, and dangerous to have such high confidence levels.
I got randomly distracted from this conversation, but returning I find:
1) Mitchell said things I would want to say, but probably more succinctly <3
2) Noosphere updated somehow (though to what, and based on what info, I’m unsure) <3
Admittedly, I updated to more of a 5-10:1 bets. A lot of this was the downside risk of betting such huge odds, but I also should have been quite a bit less confident in my own ideas.