This looks incoherent. You call overshoot “very likely” and “near extinction due to climate change conditional on overshoot: somewhat likely”. Even if I interpret those as .7 and .2 respectively, we wind up with an unconditional probability of at least .14, which I hope is not what you mean by “theoretically possible but unlikely”. If that is what you meant then I do not understand how the world looks to you, or why you’re not spending this time fundraising for CSER / taking heroin.
If that is what you meant then I do not understand how the world looks to you, or why you’re not spending this time fundraising for CSER / taking heroin.
Classy.
I have only 5 bins here with which to span everything in (0,1): theoretically possible but unlikely, somewhat likely, likely, very likely, and inevitable. The goal is a rough ranking, at this point, I don’t have enough information to meaningfully estimate actual probabilities. You have a good point, though: it would be more self-consistent to say conditional on no overshoot for the first set.
If flaming me is what it takes for you to think seriously about this, then maybe it’s worth it.
This looks incoherent. You call overshoot “very likely” and “near extinction due to climate change conditional on overshoot: somewhat likely”. Even if I interpret those as .7 and .2 respectively, we wind up with an unconditional probability of at least .14, which I hope is not what you mean by “theoretically possible but unlikely”. If that is what you meant then I do not understand how the world looks to you, or why you’re not spending this time fundraising for CSER / taking heroin.
Classy.
I have only 5 bins here with which to span everything in (0,1): theoretically possible but unlikely, somewhat likely, likely, very likely, and inevitable. The goal is a rough ranking, at this point, I don’t have enough information to meaningfully estimate actual probabilities. You have a good point, though: it would be more self-consistent to say conditional on no overshoot for the first set.
If flaming me is what it takes for you to think seriously about this, then maybe it’s worth it.