I think such an approach dilutes the useful concept on “existential risk” into uselessness.
Let me be a little more clear. My rough estimate would be that a complete collapse of modern civilization in the next 50 yeas would have in the neighborhood of a 25% chance of resulting in a complete human extinction, from a combination of natural factors, resource depletion, environmental depletion, and the inevitable wars that would accompany the collapse.
I think that that kind of scenario is far more likely in the near future then many other existential risks people worry about.
First, I think we’re using the word “civilization” in different senses. You’re talking about the global single human civilization where civilization means having running water and taking tea in the afternoon. I’m talking about multiple civilization which are, basically, long-lived cultural agglomerations (e.g. there is a Western civilization but China isn’t part of it).
a complete collapse of modern civilization in the next 50 yeas would have in the neighborhood of a 25% chance of resulting in a complete human extinction
That will probably depend on exactly how did the modern civilization collapse. An all-out nuclear exchange will have different consequences than a snowballing freeze-up of the financial payments system.
In any case, I find complete human extinction as the result of the civilization collapse to be highly unlikely. There are peoples who haven’t changed much for thousands of years—would they even notice? And absent things like nuclear winter, why would they die out?
Moreover, let’s even say 99% of the North American population will die. OK. But what would kill the remaining 1%? Sure, technology will revert to a much more primitive form, but then humans have already been there, they survived quite nicely.
First, I think we’re using the word “civilization” in different senses. You’re talking about the global single human civilization where civilization means having running water and taking tea in the afternoon. I’m talking about multiple civilization which are, basically, long-lived cultural agglomerations (e.g. there is a Western civilization but China isn’t part of it).
I would say that the whole global system is so intermingled and global right now that a complete collapse of civilization of the type I am talking about would likely have to include the entire world if it happened at all. 1500 years ago Roman civilization could fall without badly hurting Chinese civilization, but I don’t think that’s true anymore.
In any case, I find complete human extinction as the result of the civilization collapse to be highly unlikely. There are peoples who haven’t changed much for thousands of years—would they even notice?
In the kind of global demographic overexertion and resource exhaustion leading to a total collapse that we’re talking about, a lot of traditional food sources would be exhausted before the collapse. In the face of impending global starvation, I would expect every major fishery in the world to be rapidly wiped out, I would expect the rainforests to be burned for more farmland, I would expect decent soil and easily available water to be completely exhausted, ect. I would expect that process would take away most of the resources that people need to survive, and that people living in a traditional hunter-gather existence or a traditional subsistence farming existence would probably had their land and resources taken from them before the end. If we’re talking about billions of people facing potential starvation, I suspect that all thought of environmental preservation or sustainability would go right out the window, as well as concern for the well-being of aboriginal people.
There might be some pockets of people left living traditional lifestyles somewhere (that’s actually what I was thinking about when I put the extinction possibility at 25%, instead of higher), but even they would also be affected by global environmental destruction. (And, of course, small pockets of humans surviving on their own can have issues from lack of genetic diversity and such.)
Moreover, let’s even say 99% of the North American population will die. OK. But what would kill the remaining 1%?
What would they live on?
When the Roman Empire collapsed, the population of Europe dropped dramatically, perhaps by half according to some estimates, but people still remembered how to farm using old iron-age technology, people still had the knowledge of how to build houses out of wood and straw when better building materials stopped coming from distant parts of the Empire, ect. It was a catastrophe, but people still had enough knowledge of how to survive without the civilization to hang on.
How many people in North America today do you think have the knowledge of how to farm without any technology at all? How many have the knowledge to forge their own farming tools? A few do; but places known to have organic farms or traditional farming knowledge (the Amish, for example) would likely be swamped by millions of starving refugees. And besides that, once a stretch of land has been farmed using industrial farming techniques for several decades, it is very hard to change it back into something that can be farmed with old-fashioned techniques; the soil is basically completely exhausted of all it’s natural nutrients by that point, and only can be farmed with advanced techniques.
Total human extinction might not be the result, but I wouldn’t rule it out as a significant possibility.
And even if we didn’t end up with total extinction, remember that an existential risk is anything that prevents mankind from achieving it’s potential; you have to not just consider the risk of extinction, but then try to estimate the chances of us re-developing advanced technology after a collapse. That’s harder to estimate, but I don’t think it’s 100%.
I think such an approach dilutes the useful concept on “existential risk” into uselessness.
I would agree that the collapse of the Western civilization would be unpleasant for everyone involved. But that’s a bit different thing.
Let me be a little more clear. My rough estimate would be that a complete collapse of modern civilization in the next 50 yeas would have in the neighborhood of a 25% chance of resulting in a complete human extinction, from a combination of natural factors, resource depletion, environmental depletion, and the inevitable wars that would accompany the collapse.
I think that that kind of scenario is far more likely in the near future then many other existential risks people worry about.
First, I think we’re using the word “civilization” in different senses. You’re talking about the global single human civilization where civilization means having running water and taking tea in the afternoon. I’m talking about multiple civilization which are, basically, long-lived cultural agglomerations (e.g. there is a Western civilization but China isn’t part of it).
That will probably depend on exactly how did the modern civilization collapse. An all-out nuclear exchange will have different consequences than a snowballing freeze-up of the financial payments system.
In any case, I find complete human extinction as the result of the civilization collapse to be highly unlikely. There are peoples who haven’t changed much for thousands of years—would they even notice? And absent things like nuclear winter, why would they die out?
Moreover, let’s even say 99% of the North American population will die. OK. But what would kill the remaining 1%? Sure, technology will revert to a much more primitive form, but then humans have already been there, they survived quite nicely.
I would say that the whole global system is so intermingled and global right now that a complete collapse of civilization of the type I am talking about would likely have to include the entire world if it happened at all. 1500 years ago Roman civilization could fall without badly hurting Chinese civilization, but I don’t think that’s true anymore.
In the kind of global demographic overexertion and resource exhaustion leading to a total collapse that we’re talking about, a lot of traditional food sources would be exhausted before the collapse. In the face of impending global starvation, I would expect every major fishery in the world to be rapidly wiped out, I would expect the rainforests to be burned for more farmland, I would expect decent soil and easily available water to be completely exhausted, ect. I would expect that process would take away most of the resources that people need to survive, and that people living in a traditional hunter-gather existence or a traditional subsistence farming existence would probably had their land and resources taken from them before the end. If we’re talking about billions of people facing potential starvation, I suspect that all thought of environmental preservation or sustainability would go right out the window, as well as concern for the well-being of aboriginal people.
There might be some pockets of people left living traditional lifestyles somewhere (that’s actually what I was thinking about when I put the extinction possibility at 25%, instead of higher), but even they would also be affected by global environmental destruction. (And, of course, small pockets of humans surviving on their own can have issues from lack of genetic diversity and such.)
What would they live on?
When the Roman Empire collapsed, the population of Europe dropped dramatically, perhaps by half according to some estimates, but people still remembered how to farm using old iron-age technology, people still had the knowledge of how to build houses out of wood and straw when better building materials stopped coming from distant parts of the Empire, ect. It was a catastrophe, but people still had enough knowledge of how to survive without the civilization to hang on.
How many people in North America today do you think have the knowledge of how to farm without any technology at all? How many have the knowledge to forge their own farming tools? A few do; but places known to have organic farms or traditional farming knowledge (the Amish, for example) would likely be swamped by millions of starving refugees. And besides that, once a stretch of land has been farmed using industrial farming techniques for several decades, it is very hard to change it back into something that can be farmed with old-fashioned techniques; the soil is basically completely exhausted of all it’s natural nutrients by that point, and only can be farmed with advanced techniques.
Total human extinction might not be the result, but I wouldn’t rule it out as a significant possibility.
And even if we didn’t end up with total extinction, remember that an existential risk is anything that prevents mankind from achieving it’s potential; you have to not just consider the risk of extinction, but then try to estimate the chances of us re-developing advanced technology after a collapse. That’s harder to estimate, but I don’t think it’s 100%.