You get metaculus points by being active on Metaculus. People who spent a lot of time on metaculus have thought a lot about about making predictions and that’s valuable but it’s not the same as it being a measure of calibration.
The the expection of jimrandomh all the people in the top 20 have more then 1000 predictions (jimrandomh has 800). I’m Rank 87 at the moment with 195 predictions I made.
If you go on GJOpen you can see the calibration of any user and use it to judge how well they are calibrated. Metaculus doesn’t make that information publically available (you need to have level 6 and pay Tachyons to access the track record of another user, 50 Tachyons also feels too expensive to just do it for the sake of a discussion like this).
You get metaculus points by being active on Metaculus. People who spent a lot of time on metaculus have thought a lot about about making predictions and that’s valuable but it’s not the same as it being a measure of calibration.
The the expection of jimrandomh all the people in the top 20 have more then 1000 predictions (jimrandomh has 800). I’m Rank 87 at the moment with 195 predictions I made.
If you go on GJOpen you can see the calibration of any user and use it to judge how well they are calibrated. Metaculus doesn’t make that information publically available (you need to have level 6 and pay Tachyons to access the track record of another user, 50 Tachyons also feels too expensive to just do it for the sake of a discussion like this).