habryka comments on What’s a good probability distribution family (e.g. “log-normal”) to use for AGI timelines?

[habryka]

Are you looking for something like “a normal distribution”, or for something like “10% by 2030, 50% by 2050, 90% by 209

[David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)]

like “a normal distribution”, thx!