Could someone open a manifold market on the relevant questions here so I could get a better sense of the probabilities involved? Unfortunately, I don’t know the relevant questions or the have the requisite mana.
Personal note- the first time I came into contact with adult gene editing was the youtuber Thought Emporium curing his lactose intolerance, and I was always massively impressed with that and very disappointed the treatment didn’t reach market.
I have enough mana to create a market. (It looks like each one costs about 1000 and I have about 3000)
1. Is manifold the best market to be posting this given that it’s fake money and may be biased based on its popularity among LessWrong users, etc?
2. I don’t know what question(s) to ask. My understanding is there are some shorter prediction that could be made (related to shorter term goals) and longer term predictions so I think there should be at least 2 markets?
Could someone open a manifold market on the relevant questions here so I could get a better sense of the probabilities involved? Unfortunately, I don’t know the relevant questions or the have the requisite mana.
Personal note- the first time I came into contact with adult gene editing was the youtuber Thought Emporium curing his lactose intolerance, and I was always massively impressed with that and very disappointed the treatment didn’t reach market.
I have enough mana to create a market. (It looks like each one costs about 1000 and I have about 3000)
1. Is manifold the best market to be posting this given that it’s fake money and may be biased based on its popularity among LessWrong users, etc?
2. I don’t know what question(s) to ask. My understanding is there are some shorter prediction that could be made (related to shorter term goals) and longer term predictions so I think there should be at least 2 markets?