I think this is a highly useful framing. I’m not sure if Schelling points or memetic replication is a better frame, but they point to the same conclusions about viable options in public opinion (and probably politician opinion, although they might actually get more nuance with the aid of advisors as the situation becomes more urgent and clear).
The suggestion of Only One Org is something I’ve thought about but haven’t refined. I hope it’s viable.
We could think of it as a huge treasure with a curse or a bomb on it that might kill everyone.
The suggestions are:
Nobody gets near that dangerous treasure (Shut It Down)
Free for all. Everyone goes for the treasure and carries off what they can (E/Acc)
(or “Advance, It’s Always Worked Before” might be the simple Schelling point you’re pointing at)
Maybe the bomb isn’t real, nobody can make an airtight argument that it is
If anybody gets more, they’ll distribute it by paying everyone else in town to do stuff for them.
We hope.
The best prepared, best armed guy heads out now and tries to get past that bomb and out with the treasure before anyone else gets equipped enough to follow him. (US races to stay in the lead).
He’ll promise to split it up after he gets it, to keep people from following him,
but nobody knows how to hold him to it.
Just one guy, chosen by committee, tries to disarm the bomb and grab the treasure (Only One Org).
That guy has agreed to split the treasure up fairly.
The treasure is so huge that any splitting will probably make everyone happy.
So maybe nobody will grab it all from that one guy after he’s defused the bomb and gotten it.
I think this is a highly useful framing. I’m not sure if Schelling points or memetic replication is a better frame, but they point to the same conclusions about viable options in public opinion (and probably politician opinion, although they might actually get more nuance with the aid of advisors as the situation becomes more urgent and clear).
The suggestion of Only One Org is something I’ve thought about but haven’t refined. I hope it’s viable.
We could think of it as a huge treasure with a curse or a bomb on it that might kill everyone.
The suggestions are:
Nobody gets near that dangerous treasure (Shut It Down)
Free for all. Everyone goes for the treasure and carries off what they can (E/Acc)
(or “Advance, It’s Always Worked Before” might be the simple Schelling point you’re pointing at)
Maybe the bomb isn’t real, nobody can make an airtight argument that it is
If anybody gets more, they’ll distribute it by paying everyone else in town to do stuff for them.
We hope.
The best prepared, best armed guy heads out now and tries to get past that bomb and out with the treasure before anyone else gets equipped enough to follow him. (US races to stay in the lead).
He’ll promise to split it up after he gets it, to keep people from following him,
but nobody knows how to hold him to it.
Just one guy, chosen by committee, tries to disarm the bomb and grab the treasure (Only One Org).
That guy has agreed to split the treasure up fairly.
The treasure is so huge that any splitting will probably make everyone happy.
So maybe nobody will grab it all from that one guy after he’s defused the bomb and gotten it.
We hope.