First, the main point of the post as written is correct: strong evidence is common. Timid underconfidence in the face of overwhelming evidence is just as irrational as overconfidence when the prior and evidence is underwhelming.
I have two main concerns with this post:
Conflating uncorrelated hypotheses: This post asks “how difficult is it to get into the top 1% of traders?” but immediately substitutes asking if “you’re in the top 1%” as if it were the same question.
Cherry picking: The fact that debate exists means that the hypotheses are pre-selected for imprecision and the evidence for weakness.
People are imprecise, motivated reasoners, chasing incentives that lead them away from a rigid focus on accurate thought, even in their areas of expertise. Especially given the imprecisions in how this post is written, I worry readers will conflate these two:
Strong evidence is common.
Strong evidence is common for issue X, and you’ll know strong evidence when you see it.
First, the main point of the post as written is correct: strong evidence is common. Timid underconfidence in the face of overwhelming evidence is just as irrational as overconfidence when the prior and evidence is underwhelming.
I have two main concerns with this post:
Conflating uncorrelated hypotheses: This post asks “how difficult is it to get into the top 1% of traders?” but immediately substitutes asking if “you’re in the top 1%” as if it were the same question.
Cherry picking: The fact that debate exists means that the hypotheses are pre-selected for imprecision and the evidence for weakness.
People are imprecise, motivated reasoners, chasing incentives that lead them away from a rigid focus on accurate thought, even in their areas of expertise. Especially given the imprecisions in how this post is written, I worry readers will conflate these two:
Strong evidence is common.
Strong evidence is common for issue X, and you’ll know strong evidence when you see it.