This post is in my small list of +9s that I think count as a key part of how I think, where the post was responsible for clarifying my thinking on the subject. I’ve had a lingering confusion/nervousness about having extreme odds (anything beyond 100:1) but the name example shows that seeing odds ratios of 20,000,000:1 is just pretty common. I also appreciated Eliezer’s corollary: “most beliefs worth having are extreme”, this also influences how I think about my key beliefs.
(Haha, I just realized that I curated it back when it was published.)
This post is in my small list of +9s that I think count as a key part of how I think, where the post was responsible for clarifying my thinking on the subject. I’ve had a lingering confusion/nervousness about having extreme odds (anything beyond 100:1) but the name example shows that seeing odds ratios of 20,000,000:1 is just pretty common. I also appreciated Eliezer’s corollary: “most beliefs worth having are extreme”, this also influences how I think about my key beliefs.
(Haha, I just realized that I curated it back when it was published.)