Let’s say I have an idea X which happens to be correct, although I only think it’s correct with 80% probability. I believe that if idea X is incorrect, and I share it, I will be burned at the stake. So I keep idea X, a correct idea, to myself in order to avoid censure. It so happens that if I had shared idea X, the person in charge of handing out punishments would not have punished me because X happens to be a correct idea. But I had no way of knowing that for certain in advance.
Does that answer your question? I’m not sure I understand your objection.
Ahh. That works if you allow ‘not holding a belief either way’ as an option. If you punish failing to believe the true thing as well then that problem is avoided.
Let’s say I have an idea X which happens to be correct, although I only think it’s correct with 80% probability. I believe that if idea X is incorrect, and I share it, I will be burned at the stake. So I keep idea X, a correct idea, to myself in order to avoid censure. It so happens that if I had shared idea X, the person in charge of handing out punishments would not have punished me because X happens to be a correct idea. But I had no way of knowing that for certain in advance.
Does that answer your question? I’m not sure I understand your objection.
Ahh. That works if you allow ‘not holding a belief either way’ as an option. If you punish failing to believe the true thing as well then that problem is avoided.
Yep. People typically don’t receive social punishments for agreeing with the group even when the group ends up being wrong.