Do you mean that you’re 99% confident in your reasoning that it comes up tails 99.9999% of the time? If so, you’d be much less than 99.9999% sure of heads in the first place.
You can be 99.9999% sure of heads—and 99% confident of that—if you memorised your confidence—but then subsequently could not remember for sure if there were six “9”s—or maybe seven.
If there was a 99% chance that you remember correctly, and a 1% chance that there was an extra nine, you’d be slightly more than 99.9999% confident if heads.
You can be 99.9999% sure of heads—and 99% confident of that—if you memorised your confidence—but then subsequently could not remember for sure if there were six “9”s—or maybe seven.
If there was a 99% chance that you remember correctly, and a 1% chance that there was an extra nine, you’d be slightly more than 99.9999% confident if heads.