I can’t accept the wording because the masking study is not directly measuring Rt. I would prefer this wording
“Gavin bets 100 USD to GiveWell, to Mike’s 100 USD to GiveWell that the results of NCT04630054 will show a median reduction in cumulative cases > 15.0 % for the effect of a whole population wearing masks [in whatever venues the trial chose to study].”
For the cloth mask they got a 5% reduction in seroprevalence (equivalent to 15% for 100% increase) and for surgical masks they got an 9.3% reduction (equivalent to 28% for 100% increase).
I unequivocally lost the bet and will send my donation. Let me know if you have a preferred charity.
I can’t accept the wording because the masking study is not directly measuring Rt. I would prefer this wording
“Gavin bets 100 USD to GiveWell, to Mike’s 100 USD to GiveWell that the results of NCT04630054 will show a median reduction in cumulative cases > 15.0 % for the effect of a whole population wearing masks [in whatever venues the trial chose to study].”
Sounds fine. Just noticed they have a cloth and a surgical treatment. Take the mean?
Sure.
My current belief state is that cloth masks will reduce case load by ~15% and surgical masks by ~20%.
Without altering the bet I’m curious as to what your belief state is.
The study was just released https://www.poverty-action.org/study/impact-mask-distribution-and-promotion-mask-uptake-and-covid-19-bangladesh
For the cloth mask they got a 5% reduction in seroprevalence (equivalent to 15% for 100% increase) and for surgical masks they got an 9.3% reduction (equivalent to 28% for 100% increase).
I unequivocally lost the bet and will send my donation. Let me know if you have a preferred charity.
Givewell’s fine!
Thanks again for caring about this.