And I should add that markets are wickedly anti-inductive. With all the people being prodded into the stock market by tax policies and “finance gurus” … yeah, the risk is being underpriced.
Also, there needs to be a big shift, probably involving a crisis, before risk-free rates actually make up for taxation, inflation, and sovereign risk. After that happens, I’ll be confident the return on capital will be reasonable again.
This is all survivorship bias and nothing more, many other stock exchanges crashed completely
I presume that you mean cases where some violent upheaval caused property right violation, followed by the closing of a relevant exchange?
I agree that this is a significant problem. What is the real survival ratio for exchanges between 1870 and 2010?
However, let us return to the original point: that cryo would make people invest more in the future. Suppose I get a cryo contract and expect to be reanimated 300 years hence. Suppose that I am considering whether to invest in stocks, and I expect 33% of major exchanges to actually return my money if I am reanimated. I split my money between, say, 10 exchanges, and in those that survive, I get 1.05^300 or 2,200,000 times more than I invested—amply making up for exchanges that don’t survive.
This is all survivorship bias and nothing more, many other stock exchanges crashed completely or had much lower returns like Japanese.
And I should add that markets are wickedly anti-inductive. With all the people being prodded into the stock market by tax policies and “finance gurus” … yeah, the risk is being underpriced.
Also, there needs to be a big shift, probably involving a crisis, before risk-free rates actually make up for taxation, inflation, and sovereign risk. After that happens, I’ll be confident the return on capital will be reasonable again.
I presume that you mean cases where some violent upheaval caused property right violation, followed by the closing of a relevant exchange?
I agree that this is a significant problem. What is the real survival ratio for exchanges between 1870 and 2010?
However, let us return to the original point: that cryo would make people invest more in the future. Suppose I get a cryo contract and expect to be reanimated 300 years hence. Suppose that I am considering whether to invest in stocks, and I expect 33% of major exchanges to actually return my money if I am reanimated. I split my money between, say, 10 exchanges, and in those that survive, I get 1.05^300 or 2,200,000 times more than I invested—amply making up for exchanges that don’t survive.