Well, the thought experiments are precisely the experiments in what’s intuitive; that’s why they are thought experiments rather than real experiments. It indeed is fairly useless to argue how one or two electrons behave, you have to take a look in the real world and see.
Likewise with the trolley problems; the implicit presumption is that they are not completely irrelevant to the real world, yet they are because they neglect the false positive rate (assuming it to be 0) while discussing an extremely low probability event (whose probability is well below any plausible false positive rate). This sort of thing is precisely why Bayesian reasoning is so important.
Well, the thought experiments are precisely the experiments in what’s intuitive; that’s why they are thought experiments rather than real experiments. It indeed is fairly useless to argue how one or two electrons behave, you have to take a look in the real world and see.
Likewise with the trolley problems; the implicit presumption is that they are not completely irrelevant to the real world, yet they are because they neglect the false positive rate (assuming it to be 0) while discussing an extremely low probability event (whose probability is well below any plausible false positive rate). This sort of thing is precisely why Bayesian reasoning is so important.