Similarly, if you put me heads-up against a poker pro, I might stand as much as a 10% chance of knocking them out (by getting lucky on the river on an all-in)
In this case, you can probably improve your chances by making the game more about luck—just go all-in every hand.
I’ve heard that, if you go all-in on every hand in a heads-up poker match, the optimal counter-strategy still leaves you with a 1⁄3 chance of winning. (I don’t know if this is correct or not.)
Sounds about right to me. Going all-in every hand (pre-flop, and blind, of course, so I can’t be read) would definitely improve my odds if I were in a heads-up game against a pro. But at a table with more than (say) 3 others, unless they can read me as perfectly as Omega, I should probably start looking at my cards and following a simple memorized poker algorithm.
If you’re winning, simplify. If you’re losing, complicate. Works in philosopher’s football too—if you expect to be the one to bolt first, you want a kink in the path.
In this case, you can probably improve your chances by making the game more about luck—just go all-in every hand.
I’ve heard that, if you go all-in on every hand in a heads-up poker match, the optimal counter-strategy still leaves you with a 1⁄3 chance of winning. (I don’t know if this is correct or not.)
Sounds about right to me. Going all-in every hand (pre-flop, and blind, of course, so I can’t be read) would definitely improve my odds if I were in a heads-up game against a pro. But at a table with more than (say) 3 others, unless they can read me as perfectly as Omega, I should probably start looking at my cards and following a simple memorized poker algorithm.
It depends—in the limit where blinds are zero, you only call with aces and win 80% of the time. For more realistic values you may well be right.
(I had a truly marvelous bit about luck in chess in an unposted draft. Now I’ll probably throw that bit away.)
Reminds me of making the system dumber when faced with a superior adversary.
If you’re winning, simplify. If you’re losing, complicate. Works in philosopher’s football too—if you expect to be the one to bolt first, you want a kink in the path.