For those reading, the main thing I’m optimizing Foretold for right now, is for forecasting experiments and projects with 2-100 forecasters. The spirit of making “quick and dirty” questions for personal use conflicts a bit with that of making “well thought out and clear” questions for group use. The latter are messy to change, because it would confuse everyone involved.
Note that Foretold does support full probability distributions with the guesstimate-like syntax, which prediction book doesn’t. But it’s less focused on the quick individual use case in general.
If there are recommendations for simple ways to make it better for individuals; maybe other workflows, I’d be up for adding some support or integrations.
I think I might have phrased the OP “hey, is there a reason to use Foretold or Metaculus over Prediction Book?”, and it sounds in both cases like they’re really optimized for a different thing.
For those reading, the main thing I’m optimizing Foretold for right now, is for forecasting experiments and projects with 2-100 forecasters. The spirit of making “quick and dirty” questions for personal use conflicts a bit with that of making “well thought out and clear” questions for group use. The latter are messy to change, because it would confuse everyone involved.
Note that Foretold does support full probability distributions with the guesstimate-like syntax, which prediction book doesn’t. But it’s less focused on the quick individual use case in general.
If there are recommendations for simple ways to make it better for individuals; maybe other workflows, I’d be up for adding some support or integrations.
That makes sense. Thanks for chiming in.
I think I might have phrased the OP “hey, is there a reason to use Foretold or Metaculus over Prediction Book?”, and it sounds in both cases like they’re really optimized for a different thing.