If it takes me ten throws to score a treble 20 at the dartboard, am I “tending to be highly accurate”? If I score 70% in an exam, am I “tending to ace the exam”?
Let’s say you have written 5 exams and I know the scores of 3 of them. 70% 75% 73%.
If I want to describe your performance I makes sense to say: “You tend to score between 70%-75% on exams.
Whenever you draw conclusions from cognitive science experiments to reality it’s useful to use language that doesn’t signal that you are 100% certain even if the experiments found highly accurate results, meaning they had very low p values,
Whenever you draw conclusions from cognitive science experiments to reality it’s useful to use language that doesn’t signal that you are 100% certain even if the experiments found highly accurate results, meaning they had very low p values,
So should one say, not “tend to be highly accurate”, but “probably tend to be highly accurate”? Or “may probably tend to be highly accurate”?
At some point you have to stop nesting dubifiers, and I think the right point is at the outset: one is enough.
Let’s say you have written 5 exams and I know the scores of 3 of them. 70% 75% 73%. If I want to describe your performance I makes sense to say: “You tend to score between 70%-75% on exams.
Whenever you draw conclusions from cognitive science experiments to reality it’s useful to use language that doesn’t signal that you are 100% certain even if the experiments found highly accurate results, meaning they had very low p values,
So should one say, not “tend to be highly accurate”, but “probably tend to be highly accurate”? Or “may probably tend to be highly accurate”?
At some point you have to stop nesting dubifiers, and I think the right point is at the outset: one is enough.
Given that people are in generally massively overconfident in the conclusions that they draw, I advocate to use more dubifiers rather than less.