I suppose that in optimistic scenarios one could imagine cutting labor costs using high automation
No, I primarily mean new ways of treatment. For example, a hypothetical country which can easily cure Alzheimer’s would have much lower costs of medical care for the elderly. Being able to cure (as opposed to control) diabetes, a large variety of autoimmune disorders, etc. has the potential to greatly improve the efficiency of health care.
Always 20-30 years in the future for the last 60 years.
Yes, but I am not saying it would happen, I’m saying this is an example of what might happen. You’re basically claiming that there will be no major breakthroughs in the foreseeable future—I disagree, but of course can’t come up with bulletproof examples :-/
No, I primarily mean new ways of treatment. For example, a hypothetical country which can easily cure Alzheimer’s would have much lower costs of medical care for the elderly. Being able to cure (as opposed to control) diabetes, a large variety of autoimmune disorders, etc. has the potential to greatly improve the efficiency of health care.
I see. But the point is how much disability people will have before they die. It’s not obvious to me that it will go down, at least it has gone up in the recent past.
You’re basically claiming that there will be no major breakthroughs in the foreseeable future
I’m claiming that breakthroughs which increase the amount of available energy or other scarce resources by a huge amount don’t seem especially likely in the foreseeable future.
No, I primarily mean new ways of treatment. For example, a hypothetical country which can easily cure Alzheimer’s would have much lower costs of medical care for the elderly. Being able to cure (as opposed to control) diabetes, a large variety of autoimmune disorders, etc. has the potential to greatly improve the efficiency of health care.
Yes, but I am not saying it would happen, I’m saying this is an example of what might happen. You’re basically claiming that there will be no major breakthroughs in the foreseeable future—I disagree, but of course can’t come up with bulletproof examples :-/
I see. But the point is how much disability people will have before they die. It’s not obvious to me that it will go down, at least it has gone up in the recent past.
I’m claiming that breakthroughs which increase the amount of available energy or other scarce resources by a huge amount don’t seem especially likely in the foreseeable future.