If we look at the chart purely as a line chart, it looks like it is oscillating between 1 and 100 deaths per 100,000 per year. I’m pretty sure the drive of that oscillation is game theoretic rather than technological, because whatever the offense/defense balance between humans is, you can always either choose to fight a lot (until the casualties hit 100) or not much. 100 deaths per 100,000 per year seems to be the limit at which nations break.
So I don’t think this chart really tells us anything about offense/defense asymmetry. WWI was notorious for defense being very favored, and yet it’s a casualty peak.
If we look at the chart purely as a line chart, it looks like it is oscillating between 1 and 100 deaths per 100,000 per year. I’m pretty sure the drive of that oscillation is game theoretic rather than technological, because whatever the offense/defense balance between humans is, you can always either choose to fight a lot (until the casualties hit 100) or not much. 100 deaths per 100,000 per year seems to be the limit at which nations break.
So I don’t think this chart really tells us anything about offense/defense asymmetry. WWI was notorious for defense being very favored, and yet it’s a casualty peak.