A key of what distinguishes Metaculus from PredictionBook before it is that it’s harder and not easier to start prediction markets. A good prediction market should have well defined questions.
I would expect that having curated markets with well-defined questions would still be good. Twitter could hire a handful of people to write and score the predictions for the most important issues of the day.
Then you could turn the system so that people who actually make predictions get their tweets that are related more often surfaced to the top than the average person.
A key of what distinguishes Metaculus from PredictionBook before it is that it’s harder and not easier to start prediction markets. A good prediction market should have well defined questions.
I would expect that having curated markets with well-defined questions would still be good. Twitter could hire a handful of people to write and score the predictions for the most important issues of the day.
Then you could turn the system so that people who actually make predictions get their tweets that are related more often surfaced to the top than the average person.