I think it depends on the amount of money involved in the predictions! If the reward for correct predictions is high enough, people with political power might be incentivised to perform a military version of ‘insider trading’ and escalate/call off a war.
Alternatively, maybe weaker countries would bet that they will go to war to hedge their bets. Possibly this would be equivalent of paying more powerful countries in exchange for them not going to war with you (which maybe is zero-sum instead of negative-sum).
I think it depends on the amount of money involved in the predictions! If the reward for correct predictions is high enough, people with political power might be incentivised to perform a military version of ‘insider trading’ and escalate/call off a war.
Good point.
Alternatively, maybe weaker countries would bet that they will go to war to hedge their bets. Possibly this would be equivalent of paying more powerful countries in exchange for them not going to war with you (which maybe is zero-sum instead of negative-sum).
(duplicate)