and the whole world will care a lot more about this term in bank reports, basically forever.
I’m usually astonished w how seldom investors and supervisors read the fine print in annual reports. I don’t think “this time will be different”. Unless GPT-like automated report-readers step in (or maybe precisely because humans will leave this boring details to machines), we’ll see it happen again.
Btw, I just noticed that $9.3bi of these $15.2 are MBS—yeah, the same type of security associated w the great crisis of 2007-2008. And the HTM total more than U$90 bi, $72bi of which are MBS and CMBS—so dwarfing their investments in bonds, and their $17.6bi in AFS.
From the post above:
...something called Agency MBS (which you can just read as “government debt with extra steps”)
I’m no expert in US markets, but I don’t think that’s true. For instance, if you try to get a repo w them, you’ll probably need a larger hair-cut than w gov bonds.
if people had learned to read bank reports, I’d expect to read more comments on this, instead of the last three pieces I read that basically just said SVB had too much gov bonds.
EDIT: after googling “svb mbs htm,” I found tons of surces commenting on this. So, my bad. And most of all, thanks for this post & for this comment, rossry. I believe you saved me at least 1h of googling—to have a better grasp of the situation.
I’m usually astonished w how seldom investors and supervisors read the fine print in annual reports.
If that would be true, you should be able to make good money by reading the fine print of annual reports, buying some options, and then publishing the information.
Because I work for a regulator and am not allowed to do that?
Also, many investors won’t have enough incentives to read beyond what other investors are reading… except if, as you mentioned, u work w shortselling
And shortsellers did make money in this case. So in this sense, the system works… but when it happens to a bank, that’s not so cool
Why don’t they have incentives? Isn’t reading beyond what other investors are reading exactly the way to make profits if you don’t just put your money into a diversified index fund?
I’m usually astonished w how seldom investors and supervisors read the fine print in annual reports.
I am occasionally astonished by this as well. My claim is not that the whole annual report will be read more closely for the rest of time; my specific claim is that the specific footnote about unrealized HTM losses will be read closely for the rest of time.
I’m no expert in US markets, but I don’t think that’s true. For instance, if you try to get a repo w them, you’ll probably need a larger hair-cut than w gov bonds.
I suspect it is true that they’re haircut less generously, but I do not believe that any part of SVB’s trouble looked like “well, if only we could haircut our Agency MBS like our Treasurys, we’d be fine...”
The relevant fact about them for the SVB story is that their credit is insured (by the government, except with extra steps), so ultimately they’re like a slightly-weirder interest-rate play, which was exactly the firearm which SVB needed to shoot its own foot. The weirdnesses don’t add much to the story.
if people had learned to read bank reports, I’d expect to read more comments on this, instead of the last three pieces I read that basically just said SVB had too much gov bonds.
[E: People just say “SVB had too much gov bonds”] is evidence consistent with [H1: people haven’t read the reports closely enough to know the actual holdings] and [H2: people have decided that Agency MBS is adequately described in the category “gov bonds”]. The update that I make, on seeing the evidence that Agency MBS dimension not much discussed, doesn’t re-weight my ratio belief between H1 and H2, and I continue mostly believing H2 for the reasons I believed it before.
It turns that the truth is more bizarre. From Matt Levine’s Money Stuff:
But today at the Wall Street Journal Hannah Miao, Gregory Zuckerman and Ben Eisen have the actual, horrifyingexplanation, which is that the Fed’s computers go to bed at 4 p.m. and you can’t wake them up until the next morning
The point I stressed before on government bonds was right: SVB could have borrowed against them. But it seems like I was wrong: it could have borrowed against Agency MBS, too.
Btw, I just noticed that $9.3bi of these $15.2 are MBS—yeah, the same type of security associated w the great crisis of 2007-2008. And the HTM total more than U$90 bi, $72bi of which are MBS and CMBS—so dwarfing their investments in bonds, and their $17.6bi in AFS.
This is technically true but much, much less interesting than it sounds.
The “subprime CDO-squared mortgage-backed securities” associated with the 2008 crisis were:
based on mortgages of “subprime” credit rating (which is, like most terms invented by credit bankers, a gross euphemism)...
...which were(, because of the above,) not backed by the pseudo-governmental agencies that insure mortgages
“securitized” in a way that splits the existing risk between three different classes of investors, with the bank selling the riskiest two to someone else
had their middle tranches subsequently repackaged into second-order financial derivatives...
...some of which were safe to an arbitrary number of 9s if and only if you believed that defaults on the backing mortgages were independent random events...
...and which were regulated as if that condition were true...
...with the consequence that banks were allowed to take almost literally infinite leverage on them (and in relevant cases, did).
The “agency mortgage-backed securities” on SVB’s balance sheet were:
based on “conforming” mortgages insured by the pseudo-governmental “agencies”...
...the credit of which is not material to the bank, because of the insurance.
“securitized” in a way that splits the existing risk between three different classes of investors, with the bank selling the riskiest (and maybe also the second-riskiest) to someone else
definitely not repackaged using the same trick
require a ~10% capital buffer for every dollar of assets, truly regardless of riskiness (yes, even Federal Reserve deposits need this), just in case there’s some other trick that makes them bad credit
The problem in 2008 is that these theoretically-perfect-credit, infinite-leverage-allowed instruments were in fact bad credits because the independence assumption was violated. The failure couldn’t have happened within the regular system if the banks were restricted to directly owning mortgages.
The problem in 2023 has nothing to do with creditworthiness, has everything to do with the effect of interest rates on asset prices, and could have happened exactly the same way if the bank had directly owned insured mortgages.
The only facts about Agency MBS that are relevant to the SVB story are:
their credit is insured by the US government...
...so they’re basically just an interest-rate play...
...so SVB bought long-term exposures to earn interest...
...which were put underwater by rising rates, just like every other long-term debt
just like direct mortgage exposures, they have slightly super linear losses in the case of rising interest rates (which, I admit, makes them more effective at causing the problem than I present in the simple model here).
in a nutshell (I don’t have the time to write a treatise on this, every word I write is 20w i could have read instead): I’m pretty confident (status: ~ .6) that if SVB had 90bi in gov bonds HTM instead of MBS and the like, it wouldn’t have failed. You can say it would have had losses (especially in 2022), it would likely have been bought, but not failed.
I know of no bank that has suffered a run because they had too much gov long term bonds (from the corresponding government, and unless the gov defaulted, ofc) in the last century (if you have an example, please enlighten me); not only there’s a very liquid market for them, but, in the last century (perhaps since Badgehot) central banks will let banks convert them into money easily—because tax payers will suffer no losses. On the other hand, MBS (and other similar derivatives) may be linked to credit risks (even Agency MBS) and it’s quite unsure how your liquidity line will work, and the market is not so liquid; and that’s why they offer higher yields—which is why they dominated SVB’s HTM.
Thanks for the memory refreshing lecture on the crisis of 2008. But I still remember almost everything
I’m usually astonished w how seldom investors and supervisors read the fine print in annual reports. I don’t think “this time will be different”. Unless GPT-like automated report-readers step in (or maybe precisely because humans will leave this boring details to machines), we’ll see it happen again.
Btw, I just noticed that $9.3bi of these $15.2 are MBS—yeah, the same type of security associated w the great crisis of 2007-2008. And the HTM total more than U$90 bi, $72bi of which are MBS and CMBS—so dwarfing their investments in bonds, and their $17.6bi in AFS.
From the post above:
I’m no expert in US markets, but I don’t think that’s true. For instance, if you try to get a repo w them, you’ll probably need a larger hair-cut than w gov bonds.
if people had learned to read bank reports, I’d expect to read more comments on this, instead of the last three pieces I read that basically just said SVB had too much gov bonds.
EDIT: after googling “svb mbs htm,” I found tons of surces commenting on this. So, my bad. And most of all, thanks for this post & for this comment, rossry. I believe you saved me at least 1h of googling—to have a better grasp of the situation.
If that would be true, you should be able to make good money by reading the fine print of annual reports, buying some options, and then publishing the information.
Why aren’t we seeing that in your view?
Because I work for a regulator and am not allowed to do that? Also, many investors won’t have enough incentives to read beyond what other investors are reading… except if, as you mentioned, u work w shortselling And shortsellers did make money in this case. So in this sense, the system works… but when it happens to a bank, that’s not so cool
Why don’t they have incentives? Isn’t reading beyond what other investors are reading exactly the way to make profits if you don’t just put your money into a diversified index fund?
I am occasionally astonished by this as well. My claim is not that the whole annual report will be read more closely for the rest of time; my specific claim is that the specific footnote about unrealized HTM losses will be read closely for the rest of time.
I suspect it is true that they’re haircut less generously, but I do not believe that any part of SVB’s trouble looked like “well, if only we could haircut our Agency MBS like our Treasurys, we’d be fine...”
The relevant fact about them for the SVB story is that their credit is insured (by the government, except with extra steps), so ultimately they’re like a slightly-weirder interest-rate play, which was exactly the firearm which SVB needed to shoot its own foot. The weirdnesses don’t add much to the story.
[E: People just say “SVB had too much gov bonds”] is evidence consistent with [H1: people haven’t read the reports closely enough to know the actual holdings] and [H2: people have decided that Agency MBS is adequately described in the category “gov bonds”]. The update that I make, on seeing the evidence that Agency MBS dimension not much discussed, doesn’t re-weight my ratio belief between H1 and H2, and I continue mostly believing H2 for the reasons I believed it before.
It turns that the truth is more bizarre. From Matt Levine’s Money Stuff:
The point I stressed before on government bonds was right: SVB could have borrowed against them. But it seems like I was wrong: it could have borrowed against Agency MBS, too.
This is technically true but much, much less interesting than it sounds.
The “subprime CDO-squared mortgage-backed securities” associated with the 2008 crisis were:
based on mortgages of “subprime” credit rating (which is, like most terms invented by credit bankers, a gross euphemism)...
...which were(, because of the above,) not backed by the pseudo-governmental agencies that insure mortgages
“securitized” in a way that splits the existing risk between three different classes of investors, with the bank selling the riskiest two to someone else
had their middle tranches subsequently repackaged into second-order financial derivatives...
...some of which were safe to an arbitrary number of 9s if and only if you believed that defaults on the backing mortgages were independent random events...
...and which were regulated as if that condition were true...
...with the consequence that banks were allowed to take almost literally infinite leverage on them (and in relevant cases, did).
The “agency mortgage-backed securities” on SVB’s balance sheet were:
based on “conforming” mortgages insured by the pseudo-governmental “agencies”...
...the credit of which is not material to the bank, because of the insurance.
“securitized” in a way that splits the existing risk between three different classes of investors, with the bank selling the riskiest (and maybe also the second-riskiest) to someone else
definitely not repackaged using the same trick
require a ~10% capital buffer for every dollar of assets, truly regardless of riskiness (yes, even Federal Reserve deposits need this), just in case there’s some other trick that makes them bad credit
The problem in 2008 is that these theoretically-perfect-credit, infinite-leverage-allowed instruments were in fact bad credits because the independence assumption was violated. The failure couldn’t have happened within the regular system if the banks were restricted to directly owning mortgages.
The problem in 2023 has nothing to do with creditworthiness, has everything to do with the effect of interest rates on asset prices, and could have happened exactly the same way if the bank had directly owned insured mortgages.
The only facts about Agency MBS that are relevant to the SVB story are:
their credit is insured by the US government...
...so they’re basically just an interest-rate play...
...so SVB bought long-term exposures to earn interest...
...which were put underwater by rising rates, just like every other long-term debt
just like direct mortgage exposures, they have slightly super linear losses in the case of rising interest rates (which, I admit, makes them more effective at causing the problem than I present in the simple model here).
in a nutshell (I don’t have the time to write a treatise on this, every word I write is 20w i could have read instead): I’m pretty confident (status: ~ .6) that if SVB had 90bi in gov bonds HTM instead of MBS and the like, it wouldn’t have failed. You can say it would have had losses (especially in 2022), it would likely have been bought, but not failed. I know of no bank that has suffered a run because they had too much gov long term bonds (from the corresponding government, and unless the gov defaulted, ofc) in the last century (if you have an example, please enlighten me); not only there’s a very liquid market for them, but, in the last century (perhaps since Badgehot) central banks will let banks convert them into money easily—because tax payers will suffer no losses. On the other hand, MBS (and other similar derivatives) may be linked to credit risks (even Agency MBS) and it’s quite unsure how your liquidity line will work, and the market is not so liquid; and that’s why they offer higher yields—which is why they dominated SVB’s HTM. Thanks for the memory refreshing lecture on the crisis of 2008. But I still remember almost everything