I don’t think the current attempts have eaten the agency overhang at all. Basically none of them have worked, so the agency advantage hasn’t been realized. But the public efforts just haven’t put that much person-power into improving memory or executive function systems.
So I’m predicting a discontinuity in capabilities just like Thane is suggesting. I wrote another short post trying to capture the cognitive intuition: Sapience, understanding, and “AGI” I think it might be a bit less sharp, since you might get an agent sort-of-working before it works really well. But the agency overhang is still there right now.
I don’t think the current attempts have eaten the agency overhang at all. Basically none of them have worked, so the agency advantage hasn’t been realized. But the public efforts just haven’t put that much person-power into improving memory or executive function systems.
So I’m predicting a discontinuity in capabilities just like Thane is suggesting. I wrote another short post trying to capture the cognitive intuition: Sapience, understanding, and “AGI” I think it might be a bit less sharp, since you might get an agent sort-of-working before it works really well. But the agency overhang is still there right now.