Richard,
You’re making the exact point Eliezer just did, about how modeling the effects of intelligence doesn’t generally proceed by running a simulation forward. The “ordinarily” he speaks of, I assume, refers to the vast majority of physical systems in the Universe, in which there are no complicated optimization processes (especially intelligences) affecting outcomes on the relevant scales.
Richard, You’re making the exact point Eliezer just did, about how modeling the effects of intelligence doesn’t generally proceed by running a simulation forward. The “ordinarily” he speaks of, I assume, refers to the vast majority of physical systems in the Universe, in which there are no complicated optimization processes (especially intelligences) affecting outcomes on the relevant scales.