Rather than talking about Eliezer as if he’s not here and trying to make complicated inferences based on his writings, it would be much easier to come up with a list of topics we would like Eliezer to make predictions about, and then just ask him.
Or, alternatively: Eliezer, are there any particularly important predictions you got right/wrong in the past? And what important predictions of yours are still pending?
Rather than talking about Eliezer as if he’s not here and trying to make complicated inferences based on his writings, it would be much easier to come up with a list of topics we would like Eliezer to make predictions about, and then just ask him.
Or, alternatively: Eliezer, are there any particularly important predictions you got right/wrong in the past? And what important predictions of yours are still pending?
You don’t see anything wrong with errorchecking a person by asking them?
There’s a lot wrong with it, but I think it’s better than trying to track implicit predictions based on things Eliezer wrote/did.
Regardless, the much better test of accuracy is asking for current predictions, which I also proposed in the parent comment.