It is curious that we definitely have degrees of belief, but we usually can’t precisely introspect them. I would guess this is because introspecting the reasons pro/con a belief, they’re temporarily made more salient. So we have a feeling of vacillation.
I don’t find ranges of probabilities of final binary outcomes (for making decisions) to be useful at all. A single number is all I need. Just because this number may change as I focus on different pieces of evidence, doesn’t mean that it needs to be represented as a range. But if your model contains inside it parameters that represent the probability of some latent variable, then you should indeed be integrating over the distributions of all those parameters.
It is curious that we definitely have degrees of belief, but we usually can’t precisely introspect them. I would guess this is because introspecting the reasons pro/con a belief, they’re temporarily made more salient. So we have a feeling of vacillation.
I don’t find ranges of probabilities of final binary outcomes (for making decisions) to be useful at all. A single number is all I need. Just because this number may change as I focus on different pieces of evidence, doesn’t mean that it needs to be represented as a range. But if your model contains inside it parameters that represent the probability of some latent variable, then you should indeed be integrating over the distributions of all those parameters.