We understood the feasibility and general design space of nuclear weapons and space travel long before we had the detailed knowledge and industrial capacity to build such technologies.
11 years (Szilard’s patent in 1934 to Trinity in 1945) is ‘long before’?
11 years (Szilard’s patent in 1934 to Trinity in 1945) is ‘long before’?
Ok, so space travel may be a better example, depending on how far we trace back the idea’s origins. But I do think that we could develop AGI in around a decade if we made an Apollo project out of it (14 year program costing around $170 billion in 2005 dollars).
Perhaps, but as Eliezer has gone to some lengths to point out, the great majority of those working on AGI simply have no concept of how difficult the problem is, of the magnitude of the gulf between their knowledge and what they’d need to solve the problem. And solving some aspects of the problem without solving others can be extraordinarily dangerous. I think you’re handwaving away issues that are dramatically more problematic than you give them credit for.
Perhaps, but as Eliezer has gone to some lengths to point out, the great majority of those working on AGI simply have no concept of how difficult the problem is, of the magnitude of the gulf between their knowledge and what they’d need to solve the problem.
There is an observational bias involved here. If you do look at the problem of AGI and come to understand it you realize just how difficult it is and you are likely to move to work on a less ambitious narrow-AI precursor. This leaves a much smaller remainder trying to work on AGI, including the bunch that doesn’t understand the difficulty.
I think you’re handwaving away issues that are dramatically more problematic than you give them credit for.
If you are talking about the technical issues, I think 1-100 billion and 5-20 years is a good cost estimate.
As for the danger issues, yes of course this will be the most powerful and thus most dangerous invention we ever make. The last, really.
11 years (Szilard’s patent in 1934 to Trinity in 1945) is ‘long before’?
Ok, so space travel may be a better example, depending on how far we trace back the idea’s origins. But I do think that we could develop AGI in around a decade if we made an Apollo project out of it (14 year program costing around $170 billion in 2005 dollars).
Perhaps, but as Eliezer has gone to some lengths to point out, the great majority of those working on AGI simply have no concept of how difficult the problem is, of the magnitude of the gulf between their knowledge and what they’d need to solve the problem. And solving some aspects of the problem without solving others can be extraordinarily dangerous. I think you’re handwaving away issues that are dramatically more problematic than you give them credit for.
There is an observational bias involved here. If you do look at the problem of AGI and come to understand it you realize just how difficult it is and you are likely to move to work on a less ambitious narrow-AI precursor. This leaves a much smaller remainder trying to work on AGI, including the bunch that doesn’t understand the difficulty.
If you are talking about the technical issues, I think 1-100 billion and 5-20 years is a good cost estimate.
As for the danger issues, yes of course this will be the most powerful and thus most dangerous invention we ever make. The last, really.