Hi, I was at the meet-up and helped with some of the compiling of notes.
I like the idea of disaster preparedness retrospectives as a regular thing to be posted on LessWrong. Maybe they could be used for calibration, similarly to prediction calibration. For such a purpose it might be good to specifically track which “predictions” we got right (prepper items that helped, normal items that helped), and which “predictions” we got wrong in either direction (needed/wanted an item but didn’t have it, had an item but didn’t need/use it).
I took the time to organize the items mentioned in the meet-up into these four categories. I added a few that weren’t written down and a few that I had forgotten to mention.
One limitation of this would be that it doesn’t track knowledge and skills and social capital (friends, relationships with neighbors). Those are important too. Depending on the type of disaster probably more important. Maybe they could be lumped into a revised set of lists or accounted for in other retrospectives.
Proposed format: Item name (need(s) it helps with) - usage description—e.g. examples Additional explanation for the fourth category
Prepper items that helped:
Stored water (water) - e.g. a few extra cases of water bottles
Iodine tablets (water) - purifying water
Battery-powered UV light (water) - purifying water
Non-perishable foods (food) - e.g. dried food, canned food, MREs
Camping stove (food) - cooking
Lighter and matches (food, water, heat) - operate gas stove or gas fireplace
Fireplace fuel (heat) - logs, old newspapers, brown grocery bags
Mylar blankets (heat)
Hand warmers (heat) - place between layers of socks/shoes or gloves—e.g. HotHands
Battery-powered light sources (light) - e.g. flashlights, lanterns, extra batteries for them
Solar panel (communication) - provides electricity for charging phones
Normal items that helped:
Duct tape and rags (water) - wrapping outdoor faucets to prevent pipes from freezing
Water storage containers (water) - storing potable water, storing any water—e.g. buckets, jugs, empty bottles
Rolly cart (water) - transporting water
Gas stove (food, water) - cooking, purifying water
Electric kettle (food) - cooking at UT campus
Air fryer (food) - cooking at UT campus
Fireplace (heat)
Blankets (heat) - e.g. down comforter, multiple blankets to pile on top of each other
Warm clothes (heat) - e.g. Uniqlo HeatTech, long underwear, jogging pants, ski mask, skiing/camping gear, REI clothes, sweaters
Items we didn’t have but wanted or needed (but also can’t necessarily vouch for if the item is not also listed above):
Stored water (water)
Pitcher water filter (water)
Dried food (food) - e.g. grains, quinoa
Solar generator (food, heat, communication)
Propane generator (food, heat, communication)
Pressure cooker (food) - cooking at home if generator provides enough power, or cooking at UT campus
Actual firewood (heat) - e.g. a large quantity of logs
Axe (heat) - producing firewood from nearby tree branches
Electric blanket (heat) - to use if generator provides enough power
Solar phone charger (communication)
Road salt (transportation)
Items we had but didn’t need or use (which one might think may help in a disaster like this):
LifeStraw (water) - purifying water
Inefficient for processing large amounts of water.
Outdoor grill and charcoal (food, water) - cooking, purifying water
Already had a gas stove.
Did not want to risk hypothermia operating it outdoors.
Did not want to probably die of carbon monoxide poisoning operating it indoors.
A hand crank radio with phone charger (communication)
The one in use didn’t work well for phone charging—test your items before counting on them to help.
Didn’t happen to need the radio functionality of this radio.
I would recommend something like the Sawyer Squeeze (not the Sawyer mini) over the life straw. First of all, the normal life straw needs suction to push water through the filter, while with the Sawyer Squeeze you fill a water container or standard water bottle with dirty water and push it into a container. Also it has a higher flow rate of almost 0.5 gallon per minute and will filter up to 100′000 gallons of water with proper backflushing (vs. 1′000 gallons with the life straw). It costs around $35 (vs $13) but you can hydrate your whole neighbourhood with enough non-drinkable water available.
I think the “normal items that helped” category is especially important, because it’s costly in terms of money, time, and space to get prepper gear specifically for the whole long tail of possible disasters. If resources are limited, then it’s best to focus on buying things that are both useful in everyday life and also are the general kind-of-thing that’s useful in disaster scenarios, even if you can’t specifically anticipate how.
Hi, I was at the meet-up and helped with some of the compiling of notes.
I like the idea of disaster preparedness retrospectives as a regular thing to be posted on LessWrong. Maybe they could be used for calibration, similarly to prediction calibration. For such a purpose it might be good to specifically track which “predictions” we got right (prepper items that helped, normal items that helped), and which “predictions” we got wrong in either direction (needed/wanted an item but didn’t have it, had an item but didn’t need/use it).
I took the time to organize the items mentioned in the meet-up into these four categories. I added a few that weren’t written down and a few that I had forgotten to mention.
One limitation of this would be that it doesn’t track knowledge and skills and social capital (friends, relationships with neighbors). Those are important too. Depending on the type of disaster probably more important. Maybe they could be lumped into a revised set of lists or accounted for in other retrospectives.
Proposed format:
Item name (need(s) it helps with) - usage description—e.g. examples
Additional explanation for the fourth category
Prepper items that helped:
Stored water (water) - e.g. a few extra cases of water bottles
Iodine tablets (water) - purifying water
Battery-powered UV light (water) - purifying water
Non-perishable foods (food) - e.g. dried food, canned food, MREs
Camping stove (food) - cooking
Lighter and matches (food, water, heat) - operate gas stove or gas fireplace
Fireplace fuel (heat) - logs, old newspapers, brown grocery bags
Mylar blankets (heat)
Hand warmers (heat) - place between layers of socks/shoes or gloves—e.g. HotHands
Battery-powered light sources (light) - e.g. flashlights, lanterns, extra batteries for them
Solar panel (communication) - provides electricity for charging phones
Normal items that helped:
Duct tape and rags (water) - wrapping outdoor faucets to prevent pipes from freezing
Water storage containers (water) - storing potable water, storing any water—e.g. buckets, jugs, empty bottles
Rolly cart (water) - transporting water
Gas stove (food, water) - cooking, purifying water
Electric kettle (food) - cooking at UT campus
Air fryer (food) - cooking at UT campus
Fireplace (heat)
Blankets (heat) - e.g. down comforter, multiple blankets to pile on top of each other
Warm clothes (heat) - e.g. Uniqlo HeatTech, long underwear, jogging pants, ski mask, skiing/camping gear, REI clothes, sweaters
Items we didn’t have but wanted or needed (but also can’t necessarily vouch for if the item is not also listed above):
Stored water (water)
Pitcher water filter (water)
Dried food (food) - e.g. grains, quinoa
Solar generator (food, heat, communication)
Propane generator (food, heat, communication)
Pressure cooker (food) - cooking at home if generator provides enough power, or cooking at UT campus
Actual firewood (heat) - e.g. a large quantity of logs
Axe (heat) - producing firewood from nearby tree branches
Electric blanket (heat) - to use if generator provides enough power
Solar phone charger (communication)
Road salt (transportation)
Items we had but didn’t need or use (which one might think may help in a disaster like this):
LifeStraw (water) - purifying water
Inefficient for processing large amounts of water.
Outdoor grill and charcoal (food, water) - cooking, purifying water
Already had a gas stove.
Did not want to risk hypothermia operating it outdoors.
Did not want to probably die of carbon monoxide poisoning operating it indoors.
A hand crank radio with phone charger (communication)
The one in use didn’t work well for phone charging—test your items before counting on them to help.
Didn’t happen to need the radio functionality of this radio.
Small candles (light, heat)
Did not produce enough light or heat.
I would recommend something like the Sawyer Squeeze (not the Sawyer mini) over the life straw. First of all, the normal life straw needs suction to push water through the filter, while with the Sawyer Squeeze you fill a water container or standard water bottle with dirty water and push it into a container.
Also it has a higher flow rate of almost 0.5 gallon per minute and will filter up to 100′000 gallons of water with proper backflushing (vs. 1′000 gallons with the life straw). It costs around $35 (vs $13) but you can hydrate your whole neighbourhood with enough non-drinkable water available.
I think the “normal items that helped” category is especially important, because it’s costly in terms of money, time, and space to get prepper gear specifically for the whole long tail of possible disasters. If resources are limited, then it’s best to focus on buying things that are both useful in everyday life and also are the general kind-of-thing that’s useful in disaster scenarios, even if you can’t specifically anticipate how.