It seems to me like the most important piece of data is your prior on the default conditions. If, for example, there was a 99% chance of the universe winding up getting tiled in paperclips in the next year then I would accept very unlikely odds on X and likely odds on Y. Depending on how likely you think an “I Have No Mouth but I Must Scream” situation is, you might ‘win’ even if Y happens.
Hrm. A somewhat pedantic but important question; are these chances independent of each other? For example, lets say X and Y are both 50%. Does that mean I’m guaranteed to get either X or Y, or is there a ~25% chance that both come up ‘tails’ so to speak and nothing happens? If the later, what happens if both come up ‘heads’ and I get my utopia but everyone dies? (Assuming that my utopia involves being at least me being alive =P)
The second most important piece of data to me is that X is the odds of “my best imaginable utopia” which is very interesting wording. It seems to mean I won’t get a utopia better than I can imagine, but also that I don’t have to compromise if I don’t want to. I can imagine having an Iron Man suit so I assume the required technology would come to pass if I won, but HPMoR was way better than I imagined it to be before reading it. Lets say my utopia involves E.Y. writing a spiritual successor to HPMoR in cooperation with, I dunno, either Brandon Sanderson or Neil Stephenson. I think that would be awesome, but if I could imagine that book in sufficient fidelity I’d just write it myself.
My probability space looks something like 10% we arrive at a utopia close enough to my own that I’m still pretty happy, 20% we screw something up existential and die, 40% things incrementally improve even if no utopia shows up, 20% things gradually decline and get somewhat worse but not awful, 9% no real change, 1% horrible outcomes worse than “everybody dies instantly.” (Numbers pulled almost entirely out of my gut, as informed by some kind of gestalt impression of reading the news and looking at papers that come to my attention and the trend line of my own life.) If I was actually presented that choice, I’d want my numbers to be much firmer, but lets imagine I’m pretty confident in them.
I more or less automatically accept any Y value under 21%, since that’s what I think the odds are of a bad outcome anyway. I’d actually be open to a Y that was slightly higher than 21%, since it limits how bad things can get. (I prefer existence in pain to non-existence, but I don’t think that holds up against a situation that’s maximizing suffering.) By the same logic, I’m very likely to refuse any X below 10%, since that’s the odds I think I can get a utopia without the deal. (Though since that utopia is less likely to be my personal best imagined case, I could theoretically be persuaded by an X that was only a little under 10%.) X=11%, Y=20% seems acceptable if barely so?
On the one hand, I feel like leaving a chance of the normal outcome is risking a 1% really bad outcome, so I should prefer to occupy as much of the possible outcomes with X or Y; say, X=36% and Y=64%. On the other, 41% of the outcomes if I refuse are worse than right now, and 50% are better than right now, so if I refuse the deal I should expect things to turn out in my favour. I’m trading a 64% chance of bad things for a 41% chance of bad things. This looks dumb, but it’s because I think things going a little well is pretty likely- my odds about good an bad outcomes change a lot depending on whether I’m looking at the tails or the hill. Since I’m actually alright (though not enthusiastic) with things getting a little worse, I’m going to push my X and Y halfway towards the values that include things changing a little bit. Lets say X=45% and Y=55%? That seems to square with my (admittedly loose) math, and it feels at first glance acceptable to my intuition. This seems opposed by my usual stance that I’d rather risk moderately bad outcomes if it means I have a bigger chance of living though, so either my math is wrong or I need to think about this some more.
TLDR, I’d answer X=45% and Y=55%, but my gut is pushing for a higher chance of surviving or taking the default outcome depending on how the probabilities work.
It seems to me like the most important piece of data is your prior on the default conditions. If, for example, there was a 99% chance of the universe winding up getting tiled in paperclips in the next year then I would accept very unlikely odds on X and likely odds on Y. Depending on how likely you think an “I Have No Mouth but I Must Scream” situation is, you might ‘win’ even if Y happens.
Hrm. A somewhat pedantic but important question; are these chances independent of each other? For example, lets say X and Y are both 50%. Does that mean I’m guaranteed to get either X or Y, or is there a ~25% chance that both come up ‘tails’ so to speak and nothing happens? If the later, what happens if both come up ‘heads’ and I get my utopia but everyone dies? (Assuming that my utopia involves being at least me being alive =P)
The second most important piece of data to me is that X is the odds of “my best imaginable utopia” which is very interesting wording. It seems to mean I won’t get a utopia better than I can imagine, but also that I don’t have to compromise if I don’t want to. I can imagine having an Iron Man suit so I assume the required technology would come to pass if I won, but HPMoR was way better than I imagined it to be before reading it. Lets say my utopia involves E.Y. writing a spiritual successor to HPMoR in cooperation with, I dunno, either Brandon Sanderson or Neil Stephenson. I think that would be awesome, but if I could imagine that book in sufficient fidelity I’d just write it myself.
My probability space looks something like 10% we arrive at a utopia close enough to my own that I’m still pretty happy, 20% we screw something up existential and die, 40% things incrementally improve even if no utopia shows up, 20% things gradually decline and get somewhat worse but not awful, 9% no real change, 1% horrible outcomes worse than “everybody dies instantly.” (Numbers pulled almost entirely out of my gut, as informed by some kind of gestalt impression of reading the news and looking at papers that come to my attention and the trend line of my own life.) If I was actually presented that choice, I’d want my numbers to be much firmer, but lets imagine I’m pretty confident in them.
I more or less automatically accept any Y value under 21%, since that’s what I think the odds are of a bad outcome anyway. I’d actually be open to a Y that was slightly higher than 21%, since it limits how bad things can get. (I prefer existence in pain to non-existence, but I don’t think that holds up against a situation that’s maximizing suffering.) By the same logic, I’m very likely to refuse any X below 10%, since that’s the odds I think I can get a utopia without the deal. (Though since that utopia is less likely to be my personal best imagined case, I could theoretically be persuaded by an X that was only a little under 10%.) X=11%, Y=20% seems acceptable if barely so?
On the one hand, I feel like leaving a chance of the normal outcome is risking a 1% really bad outcome, so I should prefer to occupy as much of the possible outcomes with X or Y; say, X=36% and Y=64%. On the other, 41% of the outcomes if I refuse are worse than right now, and 50% are better than right now, so if I refuse the deal I should expect things to turn out in my favour. I’m trading a 64% chance of bad things for a 41% chance of bad things. This looks dumb, but it’s because I think things going a little well is pretty likely- my odds about good an bad outcomes change a lot depending on whether I’m looking at the tails or the hill. Since I’m actually alright (though not enthusiastic) with things getting a little worse, I’m going to push my X and Y halfway towards the values that include things changing a little bit. Lets say X=45% and Y=55%? That seems to square with my (admittedly loose) math, and it feels at first glance acceptable to my intuition. This seems opposed by my usual stance that I’d rather risk moderately bad outcomes if it means I have a bigger chance of living though, so either my math is wrong or I need to think about this some more.
TLDR, I’d answer X=45% and Y=55%, but my gut is pushing for a higher chance of surviving or taking the default outcome depending on how the probabilities work.
No, mutually exclusive. Also X + Y can be less than 100, the rest is status quo.