I think there are close to zero humans who make this tradeoff. Scope insensitivity hits too hard.
The first question, though, is “compared to what?” If I reject the deal, what’s the chance intelligence will attain utopia at some point, and what’s the chance of extinction? The second question is “why should I believe this offer?”
Compared to the current status quo, which we don’t understand fully. The question isn’t supposed to be easy, it ties into a lot of things. You are supposed to believe the offer though.
Whereas I would take it at 50⁄50. Scope insensitivity looks to me like it would hit both sides (both are all humanity forever), and so it is not clear which side it favors.
I think there are close to zero humans who make this tradeoff. Scope insensitivity hits too hard.
The first question, though, is “compared to what?” If I reject the deal, what’s the chance intelligence will attain utopia at some point, and what’s the chance of extinction? The second question is “why should I believe this offer?”
Compared to the current status quo, which we don’t understand fully. The question isn’t supposed to be easy, it ties into a lot of things. You are supposed to believe the offer though.
Whereas I would take it at 50⁄50. Scope insensitivity looks to me like it would hit both sides (both are all humanity forever), and so it is not clear which side it favors.