Yes, when we talk about something having systematic effects, we mean it tends probabilistically to have those effects.
Typically, when I want to discuss probabilistic relations I’ll use a probabilistic word, like “probably” or “tends to” or “correlates with.” When I use the word “systematically,” I typically want to imply a causal relationship. Taking Eliezer’s old example, if I put a pebble in the bucket when a sheep leaves the fold and take a pebble out of the bucket when a sheep returns to the fold, I’ve created a causal system, which will have the systematic effect of letting me know how many sheep are outside the fold by checking the level of the bucket. Whether the system is deterministic or stochastic doesn’t make much difference for how I think about the graph connecting the nodes, though it will change the underlying mathematics.
Now, I’ll note my answer is very different from Eliezer’s, and I suspect that’s because “tends probabilistically to” is a simpler concept than a causal system; I might be trying to explain addition using multiplication.
Typically, when I want to discuss probabilistic relations I’ll use a probabilistic word, like “probably” or “tends to” or “correlates with.” When I use the word “systematically,” I typically want to imply a causal relationship. Taking Eliezer’s old example, if I put a pebble in the bucket when a sheep leaves the fold and take a pebble out of the bucket when a sheep returns to the fold, I’ve created a causal system, which will have the systematic effect of letting me know how many sheep are outside the fold by checking the level of the bucket. Whether the system is deterministic or stochastic doesn’t make much difference for how I think about the graph connecting the nodes, though it will change the underlying mathematics.
Now, I’ll note my answer is very different from Eliezer’s, and I suspect that’s because “tends probabilistically to” is a simpler concept than a causal system; I might be trying to explain addition using multiplication.